羊了个羊分析

Wow, it's exploded! The latest unemployment rate and employment data from the United States are here. Will this be good news? Come take a look.
This time the unemployment rate is 4.6%, significantly higher than expected! The employment data is slightly below expectations!
This unemployment rate of 4.6% is very surprising, and it is definitely bad news. However, it also increases the probability of a rate cut in January, so it's a mixed bag. But the continuous increase in the unemployment rate is still concerning and really unexpected. #非农

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The market holds its breath: Where will the non-farm payrolls push gold and the dollar? #黄金

9:30
The U.S. November non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with economists expecting a gain of 40,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. However, job growth may be overestimated, as data from the Labor Department since April may have overestimated by 60,000 jobs each month, meaning actual job growth could be negative. The labor market is in a 'frozen' state, with companies neither hiring nor laying off employees. The performance of the labor market in the coming months will be crucial for Federal Reserve decision-making. #非农就业数据 #黄金

On December 16, the cryptocurrency industry will welcome an annual key variable—the U.S. November non-farm payroll report will officially be released! This is the first monthly employment data after a 43-day federal government shutdown, and the true state of the labor market is about to be revealed. Every fluctuation in the data could stir the winds of the cryptocurrency market.
The Federal Reserve has long issued warnings: officials predict the unemployment rate will peak at 4.5%, and Powell has explicitly stated that the job market is under pressure, with job creation possibly falling into negative growth. The current job market is deeply trapped in a "low hiring, low firing" stalemate, with young job seekers bearing the brunt; over half of employers have given a poor rating to the job market for graduates of the class of 2026. Experts generally believe that an aging population and immigration restrictions will continue to tighten labor supply, and monthly employment growth is likely to remain low. $BTC

#美联储何时降息？ #美联储降息
1. Federal Reserve's hawkish statements intensify
2. November US Non-Farm Payrolls + CPI
3. Japan's interest rate hike (currently 75% probability)
$BTC $ETH $BNB

Non-farm payrolls: Expected to be only +40,000 (previous value +150,000). If true, this will be one of the lowest increases of the year, marking a cliff-like slowdown in labor market momentum.
· Unemployment rate: Expected to remain high at 4.40% (previous value 4.40%). Several months of an unemployment rate above 4% have formed a key crack in the narrative of a "soft landing."
Behind these two sets of numbers is an intense bull-bear battle:
· Bears (economic pessimists) believe: The data will confirm that the economy is rapidly losing speed, and the Federal Reserve must urgently turn to easing.
· Bulls (inflation stubbornists) believe: A slowdown in employment is a necessary cost to curb inflation, and the Fed should not surrender too early.
⚖️ Three scenario simulations: Which script does your strategy correspond to?
1. Data far weaker than expected (e.g., negative employment growth, soaring unemployment rate)
✅ Market reaction: “Recession trade” completely dominates! Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 will be significantly raised, the dollar will plunge, and U.S. Treasury yields will crash.
2. Data in line with expectations (employment around +40,000, unemployment rate 4.40%)
✅ Market reaction: Confirms the “moderate slowdown” script, and previously priced-in expectations for rate cuts may have “fully priced in”, potentially leading the market into short-term fluctuations.
3. Data stronger than expected (employment returns to over 100,000, unemployment rate decreases)
✅ Market reaction: The narrative of “the economy not landing” returns! Expectations for “higher for longer” interest rates will severely impact the market, the dollar will surge, and risk assets will come under pressure. $BTC

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$BTC The fryer exploded! Powell directly flipped the table—January rate cuts are completely canceled, and CME FedWatch data shows the probability of rate cuts plunging to 27%, leaving only 24.4%! This is not a policy adjustment; it's a liquidity bloodletting needle for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies?!

Previously, the market was crazily speculating on rate cuts, with the S&P rising 8% and BTC stuck at a high of $90,000; now that fantasy is shattered! Combined with a net outflow of 3.4 billion from ETFs and Japan's rate hikes draining liquidity, the market has turned into a meat grinder in an instant! Powell is openly telling retail investors, "Don't wait for the floodgates to open," chasing highs now is just asking to get hurt, and sooner or later, you'll be left with nothing but your shorts!

Thank you for reading this, and finally, I wish you good morning☀ good afternoon$BTC

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BTC short-term fluctuations are weak, with a lack of strength in rebounds and cautious funding sentiment. There is clear pressure above, insufficient momentum for bulls, and the short-term remains primarily focused on short positions. If there is a stable increase in volume and the support below holds, consider opportunities for trend reversal. Overall, maintain the idea of range-bound fluctuations.

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C. I have a bold idea to take the opportunity to apply for a job...🤓☝️

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The interest rate hike in the United States is well-known, so let me discuss the impact of Japan's interest rate hike on the blockchain (cryptocurrency) market.

Japan's interest rate increases generally create an overall bearish impact on the blockchain and cryptocurrency market.

The rate hike raises the cost of capital and tightens global liquidity, leading to a decline in risk appetite, with capital more inclined to flow into low-risk assets, thus reducing investment in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Interest rate hikes often drive the yen to appreciate, causing Japanese investors to withdraw funds from the crypto market back into their own currency or domestic bonds, resulting in additional selling pressure.
$BTC $ETH

Yesterday, the CFTC announced that spot trading of Bitcoin and certain cryptocurrencies can now be conducted on CFTC-registered exchanges in compliance. On the surface, this seems like just opening another door for the CME, but the deeper meaning is that this is the first time the U.S. regulatory framework has explicitly recognized the independence of the 'cryptocurrency market'. #btc

New starting point, starting anew $BTC