卓远日记

8 Years in the Cryptocurrency Market: The Core Principles from 250,000 to Tens of Millions

I transitioned from gold to the cryptocurrency market 8 years ago, starting with a principal of 250,000, which dropped to a minimum of 50,000, and ultimately grew to tens of millions through reinvesting. I once achieved a 400-fold return in 4 months (single wave of 40 million), and now I own 5 properties. Behind this is 3,000 days of practical experience, and the following 10 iron rules are key: achieving unity of knowledge and action is essential for consistent profits:

1. Capital Management: Keep reserve funds, capture major rises once a year, and avoid being fully invested.
2. Enhance Understanding: Engage in real trading with actual money; experiencing pressure is essential to understanding trading.
3. Timely Profit Taking: Withdraw when there’s a price spike the next day after good news to avoid price declines.
4. Holiday Strategy: Reduce positions or refrain from trading before holidays to prevent being controlled by market manipulators.
5. Medium to Long-term Holding: Maintain sufficient liquid funds, sell on rises and buy on dips to lower costs.
6. Choose Quality Cryptocurrencies: For short-term trades, select those with high trading volumes and avoid those with poor liquidity.
7. Understand Market Trends: Gradual declines followed by mild recoveries or sharp declines followed by quick rebounds.
8. Strict Stop Loss: Immediately cut losses if the direction reverses, prioritizing the protection of principal.
9. Use Technical Tools: For short-term trading, observe 15-minute candlestick charts and use tools like KDJ to identify entry points.
10. Focus on a Few Skills: Master several technical analysis methods that suit you.

The cryptocurrency market, like other investments, requires overcoming the barrier of “seven losses, two breakevens, and one profit.” Stick to a trading system and you can walk steadily and earn for a long time. $BTC $ETH

If you have any questions, feel free to ask. I will help you analyze whether it is necessary to wait or to stop loss #币安HODLer空投SAPIEN $ZEC

12.22 Gold bulls are simply on an unbroken winning streak ​$BTC $ETH #美联储回购协议计划

12.22 WTI Crude Oil Evening Review

Personally, I feel that today's crude oil is showing a low-level fluctuation rebound, but the upward momentum is obviously insufficient. The overall bearish pattern has not been broken, so intraday operations should still focus on short-term rebounds to short, and positions and stop-losses must be closely monitored.

As of 20:10, WTI crude oil is reported at $57.05 per barrel, up slightly by 0.90%; SC crude oil main contract closed at 432.7 yuan, an increase of 2.46%, with intraday high and low points reaching 438.3 and 428.5 respectively. From the driving factors, I think today's rebound is more supported by short-term geopolitical news— the U.S. intercepting Venezuelan oil tankers, along with the tense situation between the Middle East, the U.S., and Venezuela, adding some pulse-like premium to oil prices. However, this support is difficult to sustain; the core bearish factor that truly dominates the market is still the oversupply: global crude oil inventories have been accumulating, expectations of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are suppressing risk premiums, and the demand side shows no bright performance, while the technical indicators are in a bearish arrangement, with the mid-term trend still leaning bearish.

On the technical front, at the daily level, the formation of the moving averages in a bearish arrangement is very clear. Although the green bars of MACD below the zero axis are converging, there is still no golden cross signal, and the RSI value is approximately between 40-45, indicating that the rebound momentum is very weak, and the downward trend has not been reversed.

The first resistance is at 57.6, with strong resistance in the range of 58.0-59.0; support should be watched at 55.5-55.9, and if broken, look down to 54.5-54.8. In terms of rhythm, the Asian session has already seen a wave of rebound; I estimate that the European session will most likely maintain a range-bound fluctuation, and during the U.S. session, we need to be cautious of a pullback after a rise.

Short near crude oil 57.6-58.0, with a stop-loss above 58.3, and initially target 55.9-55.5. If it can break support, continue to look for 54.8.
In the 55.5-55.9 range, if it stabilizes, go long, with a stop-loss set at 55.2, targeting 57.0-57.5 for profit-taking.

- Risk control is the bottom line: a single position must not exceed 3%, stop-loss must be strictly enforced, and once a lack of rebound strength is detected, do not hesitate, quickly take profits and exit, do not linger in the battle #美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH

Gold hits a new high again, the aggressive still believe that the bulls are chasing in with good stop losses. Perhaps you don't dare, but in my eyes, the market is just the moment of eating meat $BTC $ETH #比特币流动性

Gold breaks new highs again, will silver's rise to 70 also be a breakthrough within reach? Zhuoyuan 12.22 Silver Insights

News: The Federal Reserve's rate cut in December has landed, with expectations for continued rate cuts into 2026 strengthening, and the dollar index weakened to 98.6, boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets. Supply and demand & inventory: COMEX inventory at a fifteen-year low, significant delivery pressure; demand for silver in photovoltaics/new energy vehicles/AI surges, with a gap of about 95 million ounces expected by 2025; strikes in Peru and increased tariffs in Mexico tighten supply further. Geopolitical risk: Attacks on Russian oil tankers in Ukraine, increased U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, raising safe-haven buying needs. Funds and market: Continuous inflow into silver ETFs, China Investment Silver LOF adjusts subscription limits today (Class A to 500 yuan, Class C to 500 yuan), on-site premiums exceed 44%, indicating risks of overheating sentiment. Policy and regulation: COMEX raises silver futures margin by 10%, China upgrades silver to strategic resource, implementing export license management starting January 2026, further tightening supply expectations.

Silver suggestions: Trend: The main upward wave continues, but overbought and crowded trading intensifies volatility. Resistance: $69.5 (intraday high), $70 (round number). Support: $65-66 (trendline), $61 (20-EMA).

Operational suggestion: Do not chase highs. Lightly short if rebounding to $69.5-70, stop loss at $70.5; if it stabilizes at $65-66 during a pullback, consider small long positions, stop loss at $64.
Medium to long-term: The trend is still in place, but wait for pullbacks to gradually position, keeping the position control within 30%, and ensure risk control.

$BTC $ETH #比特币流动性

$BTC $ETH #比特币流动性 4382 got on the ride-sharing service and stopped after earning 8 points.

$BTC $ETH #比特币流动性 Gold breaks new highs, and this long-term layout of hundreds of points is also perfect ​​​

Gold accumulation awaits a breakthrough, silver chasing increases should be cautious
Zhuoyuan 12.22 Gold Morning Review

Last week, several delayed economic data from the U.S. were released in a concentrated manner, prompting the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path, with a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations for January 2026 compared to previous forecasts. On the employment front, the non-farm payrolls in November exceeded market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reaching the highest level since September 2021; meanwhile, the decline in October non-farm data recorded a near five-year peak, highlighting substantial cooling signals beneath the surface stability of the labor market.

In terms of inflation, the November CPI data fell below expectations across the board, with overall CPI year-on-year at 2.7% and core CPI year-on-year at 2.6%, both retreating to the lowest levels since March 2021. Following the data release, market bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts intensified, with federal funds futures indicating that the probability of a rate cut in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%; the market also expects that by the end of 2026, policies will continue to maintain an accommodative tone, with an expected annual rate cut of about 62 basis points. However, some economists warn that the CPI data may contain significant “water content.”

Last Thursday, gold prices surged and then retreated, leading to two clear judgments: first, this retreat confirms the December gold high at 4375, making it difficult to create new highs in the short term; second, gold is likely to maintain a high-level oscillation trend in the late December period, and the adjustment space deserves caution. These judgments are sufficient to cover the analysis of the remaining December market; the current large trading range for gold is 4375-4250, with a short-term small range locked at 4350-4280.

From a technical perspective, the daily level closed bearish on Thursday, the price briefly approached the upper track pressure but quickly retreated, ultimately stabilizing at the moving average support level, and the short-term bullish pattern remains unchanged. The 4-hour level trend shows that the midnight surge did not lead to an opening of the Bollinger upper track, and the current Bollinger Bands are in a contracting state, with clear characteristics of range oscillation. The key short-term range is 4350-4280; without an effective breakthrough of the range, both bullish and bearish trends are difficult to continue.

Buy gold near 4220-4330. Target 4350-4380 if unable to continue, then lightly short.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis, investment carries risks, everything is subject to actual trading $BTC $ETH

$BTC #比特币流动性 Morning short line has exited ​

Zhuoyuan 12.19 Gold Morning Review

Yesterday, Zhuoyuan's public bullish strategy was once again realized! Yesterday, we bought at 4317 and at the lowest point of 4310 dollars! How accurate it is, everyone can see for themselves! Gold's lowest point yesterday was a pullback to 4308.8 dollars, and we accurately bought at 4310, hitting the intraday lowest point directly! The earliest layout in the entire market, placing orders saves worry and effort! A sniper-like operation.

The U.S. November seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, a new low since March 2021, paving the way for interest rate cuts; the European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged, and officials say the rate cut cycle may end; the Bank of England cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with the governor indicating that future rate cuts will slow down.

Today, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is awaited, with market expectations for a rate hike and rates exceeding 0.5% for the first time in 20 years; at 23:00 tonight, we will see the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for December, the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation for December, and the annualized total number of existing home sales for November.

The market needs to be alert for a rhythm switch: the recent trend pattern is a downward fluctuation during the day and a rally in the latter half of the U.S. trading session. Once this rhythm changes, it is a signal for a market shift, especially since today is Friday, increasing the volatility risk. In the intraday short term, we first look at a small range, locking in 4310-4350 on the hourly level, and buying low and selling high within this range during the day. On the four-hour cycle, the lower support is at 4290, while the middle support is at 4320.

Buy gold near 4290-4305. Target 4320-4350; if it fails to continue, continue to short with a light position.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis; investment carries risks, and everything is subject to actual trading $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Perfect layout, still 8 points away from the target, waiting for the new high in gold, it's not far and your wish to listen $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Zhuoyuan 12.18 CPI is coming - Gold Evening Review

Tonight's CPI forecast: Inflation slows down while expectations are raised, gold bets on both sides and risk management show a muted market reaction to this CPI data, primarily due to the combined influence of three factors: First, the lack of data credibility, affected by the U.S. government shutdown in October-November, the October CPI data is permanently missing, and this report cannot provide month-on-month data, with the interruption of survey work during the shutdown further raising doubts about data quality; Second, the Federal Reserve's policy focus has shifted from combating inflation to preventing excessive deterioration in the labor market, with weak employment providing support for rate cuts, which has relatively diminished the importance of CPI data unless the final value deviates significantly from expectations; Third, the market has anticipated future policy changes ahead of time, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term ending in May next year, and the market generally betting that his successor will implement more aggressive rate cut policies, further diluting the impact of this CPI data due to pre-priced behaviors.

Currently, gold continues to maintain a high-level oscillation and repair in the daily trend, with prices temporarily compressed between 4270-4350. In the 4-hour trend, after continuous oscillation, the technical pattern shows signs of slight weakening, with short-term moving averages beginning to gradually turn downward, and the K-line slowly breaking through short-term moving average support, suggesting there may still be room for further downward adjustment in the short-term trend. In the hourly trend, the K-line basically stays close to the short-term moving average, maintaining a good oscillating downward trend, with prices near previous support zones showing little rebound strength or continuity, leaning towards potential short-term adjustment space.

Go long near gold 4305-4310. Target 4335-4350, breaking 4350 would indicate a new high, if not able to continue, lightly short.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis, investing has risks and everything is subject to actual trading $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Yesterday's early review urged everyone to enter the market and go long. We captured three waves of market movements today, each wave was precisely timed, securing profits steadily! $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Zhuoyuan 12.18 Gold Morning Review

Don't blindly believe in the trading techniques of being bullish; execution is the key. No matter how good the strategy is, if it doesn't land, it's worth nothing. No matter how bad the market is, as long as you maintain discipline, you can survive.

Gold is oscillating at a high level with a strong bias; the long-short game needs to pay attention to key signals. On December 18, the gold market continued to show a strong oscillation. London gold is currently quoted at 4338.14 USD/ounce, with a slight increase of 0.70% during the day; Gold T+D and Shanghai Gold main contracts both rose, reporting 977.2 yuan/gram (+0.42%) and 982.48 yuan/gram (+0.53%) respectively. Expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion have formed a triple support, but one must be wary of overbought pressure and macro data disturbances.

From a key price point perspective, the short-term support for international gold prices is at 4297-4310. Resistance is at 4345-4380; if it stabilizes at 4350, there is hope to challenge the range of 4380-4385. The core logic driving the rise in gold prices is clear: the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve lowers the dollar and real interest rates, reducing the cost of holding gold; continuous purchases by global central banks establish a foundation for demand; geopolitical conflicts such as those in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine bring an increase in risk aversion buying. However, upcoming U.S. CPI and non-farm data will become important variables; if the data exceeds expectations or weakens interest rate cut expectations, it may trigger profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, multiple timeframes show a divergence: the daily line shows a solid bullish trend, the moving average system provides support, the MACD golden cross continues above the zero axis, and the RSI is neutral to strong but needs to guard against overbought conditions. The four-hour level shows a narrowing Bollinger Bands, MACD death cross converging, RSI showing a pullback from overbought conditions, and a visible pullback pressure. The one-hour level, however, maintains an upward trend, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, and the MACD golden cross expanding, indicating a short-term bullish advantage.

Buy near gold 4320-4310. The target is to break through 4350-4380 with volume for a new high; if not sustained, continue to short with a light position.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis; investment involves risks, and everything is subject to actual trading. $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Resonance at the same frequency, understanding the essence does not require too many words ​$BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

Zhuoyuan 12.17 Gold Evening Review

In trading, what often tests is the human heart; when the direction is right, it’s merely to entice you to run away. When the direction is wrong, you just hold on, and this will always lead to a constant state of floating losses. The necessary change is to have a good mindset and accept stop losses as the first step in trading.

The gold hourly chart relied on 4300 in the morning and directly made a strong move, the first wave surged to 4327, then it pulled back and stabilized at 4311, which is the 618 Fibonacci retracement level of the first wave pullback. Again, the second wave surged to 4342, which is the upper trend resistance point of the newly converging triangle in the chart over the past few days. Therefore, if it pulls back, the support according to the 618 Fibonacci retracement is still around 4322. However, during the European session, it fell below that point and directly hit the starting point of the second wave, undergoing a 30-meter washout, which remains relatively high in repetition; thus, looking at tonight, we should try to buy near the lower edge of the converging triangle, with support at 4285-82, which is somewhat distant, while the upper resistance is at 4340. Alternatively, if it forcibly breaks above 4340 and stabilizes at the upper edge, a big bullish candle or multiple bullish candles would be ideal, then pulling back to confirm and follow the bullish trend could be attempted; currently, it is oscillating around the mid-line, piercing too many times back and forth. A closer support level is the daily 5 moving average at 4300, which is also the starting point for the morning rise. If a stabilization signal appears here, it could also be considered for a bullish attempt; it could also break through the current European session pressure level of 4323. After effectively standing above with a big bullish candle, pulling back to confirm and following the bullish trend would be viable. Therefore, there are many conditions to be bullish tonight, just wait patiently.

Buy near 4310-4305 for gold. Target 4345-4350, a breakout with volume would signify a new high; if unable to continue, then continue to short with light positions.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis; investing entails risks, and everything is subject to actual trading $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

ETH
Currently still fluctuating within a sideways range, last night's surge only barely touched the resistance level of 2980, failing to achieve an effective breakthrough before retreating again. The intraday rebound resistance remains unchanged, still closely watching the 2980-3015 range; as long as this resistance range is not broken, the overall rebound strength will be limited. The key defensive support below looks towards 2880, and once this position is lost, the market is likely to start a new round of downward trend, with lower target supports successively at 2800, 2700, and 2600. If the market strongly breaks through the resistance level of 3015, the rebound resistance above can further be looked at around 3100. #美国非农数据超预期 $ETH $BTC

Good afternoon, brothers! This market performance is indeed disappointing; every time there is a rebound, it quickly falls back as soon as it touches the peak. The upper resistance level has not even reached the expected level, and the level of frustration is at an all-time high. The big coin surged to over 88000 and then turned down. Today's trading strategy remains focused on short positions—after all, the downtrend is not yet over. The stop-loss for short positions can be set right at the rebound resistance zone. Currently, the smaller time frame has broken down again, and the key rebound resistance is seen at the 87300-88000 range. As long as the rebound fails to effectively break through this range, the smaller time frame is likely to continue the downtrend. Friends holding short positions can set their stop-loss in this resistance zone; the lower target support is initially set at 85000-84000. Additionally, long positions can be placed near 80500 as a backup; if the market strongly breaks through 88000, the upper resistance is still expected to be around 89500. $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

The Federal Reserve's decision combined with Trump's policy statements creates a double variable that ignites the market! Can gold bulls break through by taking advantage of this momentum?
Today, on the eve of the US market, three major events are arriving one after another, and gold safe-haven buying is about to surge.
21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a key speech, focusing on the interest rate path and inflation wording—if the tone is hawkish, gold prices may drop to the 4180 level; if dovish signals are released, gold is expected to aim for new highs.
22:00 Trump will take the stage to deliver a policy speech, focusing on the policy framework and tariff measures: if the attitude is tough, rising inflation expectations will help push gold prices sharply higher; if the statements are moderate, a rebound in the dollar is likely to pressure gold prices back to around 4220.
22:05 New York Fed President Williams will deliver an opening speech at the foreign exchange conference, anchoring the direction of dollar liquidity—once dovish signals are released, market expectations for easing will rise, and gold bulls may welcome a good opportunity to increase positions.
The next day at 01:30, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will elaborate on the economic outlook; if the tone is hawkish, gold prices may face downward pressure; if the trend of economic slowdown is acknowledged, safe-haven funds are expected to provide additional momentum for gold.
#美国非农数据超预期 $ETH $BTC