姓赵不宣

Binance unlocks new features, the fan group is here!

You are not alone ☹️

I am with you $ETH

🚨4-Year Cycle Simulation Highlights (Not Investment Advice)🚨
⚡️Short-Term Volatility
▫️Q3-Q4 may retest strong support at $68K-$73K (Miner Cost + CME Gap)
▫️Weekly TD9 Sequence is about to be reached
🚀Main Uptrend Logic
✅Dual Cycle Resonance: Halving Effect (May 2024) + Federal Reserve Liquidity (Q4 2024)
✅Whale Cost Anchor: Institutions building positions at $65K-$70K / Mining Machine Iteration Cost at $58K
✅Policy Catalyst: U.S. Crypto Legislation may accelerate
🎯Target Trajectory
▫️Conservative Target for H1 2025 at $114K (1.618 Fibonacci Level)
▫️Trump Cycle Exceeding Expectations Scenario $160K+ (Benchmarking Gold 5% Market Value)
⚠️Risk Warning
▫️Monthly RSI > 90 will trigger epic overbought conditions
▫️Whale Position Concentration has reached levels seen on the eve of the 2021 Bull Market
▫️Black Swan Monitoring: U.S. Treasury Liquidity / Middle East Situation

Don't just focus on Bitcoin anymore; we have long been in a bear market.

It took some time for me to believe that we are in a bear market, and it has already lasted for about a year.

🚨 The crypto market has quietly been in a bear market for 1 year! Most people misjudge the situation and miss the opportunity to position themselves at the bottom? Two fundamental changes revealed:

1️⃣ Meme frenzy = "Altcoin season" itself! The TRUMP craze in November 2024 is not a prelude, but a peak. Foolish money is pouring into Meme, new narrative? Doesn't exist!

2️⃣ BTC has deviated from its native cycle, dominated by institutions/macroeconomics. Don't wait for BTC to crash to confirm the bear market—it has already started after the TRUMP peak!

The market is currently in a phase of anger/depression. Recognize reality, don't deny it! High-confidence judgments will be proven by action. Shall we discuss?

Winter has arrived

👀
Crossing an 8-Year Dialogue: Jack Ma's 'Fear' and 'Ambition' Towards Bitcoin

By the end of 2017, Bitcoin was approaching the $20,000 mark. Jack Ma candidly admitted in a CNBC interview that he was 'confused' about Bitcoin, but Alibaba behind him had already begun to make far-reaching plans. According to relevant data, Alibaba ranked first in the world in the number of blockchain patents from 2017 to 2018. Jack Ma's strategy is very clear: 'Don't touch the coin, but must fight for the chain.'

💡
Core Views

1. Attitude towards Bitcoin: He candidly stated that he is not a fan and even feels confused. Compared to the 'coin' as an investment, he is more focused on the technology that can solve social problems.

2. Disruption of Rules: Jack Ma bluntly stated that if Bitcoin is proven to be successful, the existing international trade rules and global financial system will be completely restructured.

3. Alibaba's Layout: He emphasized that Alibaba has invested significant resources in researching blockchain technology (Blockchain), aiming to enhance the efficiency and transparency of social operations, and to fundamentally eliminate corruption.

4. Focus on a Cashless Society: His core goal remains to promote the circulation efficiency of Alipay and fiat currencies such as the Renminbi, US Dollar, Euro, etc., in the digital age.

【The "Aixinghe" Ponzi Scheme of 10 Billion, Victims collectively shout 'Release the person'】

The 10 billion fund scheme "Aixinghe" collapsed,
Chairman Wu Fengqin was arrested.
On December 17,
hundreds of deceived investors
gathered outside the Economic Investigation Team of the Baoshan Branch of Shanghai Public Security Bureau,
asking the police to immediately release the chairman of great love.
The investors shouted:
"Release the person! Release the person!"

Netizens who saw this scene expressed:
"You have been cheated out of your money, yet you still speak of great love."

It is reported that,
Wu Fengqin led the Xi'ai Group's Aixinghe,
Aiying Preferred platform,
since its operation, it attracted funds with false advertising,
declaring "daily returns of 1%,
yearly over 300%" high returns,
fabricating false qualifications such as "51% controlled by state-owned enterprises",
"dual headquarters in Hangzhou and Shanghai",
combining false identity endorsements,
inducing investors to invest large amounts,
some investors lost all their life savings,
having no money for retirement,
and even a delivery worker who earned 90,000 yuan was also deceived.

The core model of the project lacks real entity support,
operating through a dual APP linkage,
paying old users' rebates with new users' funds,
the essence is a typical Ponzi scheme,
from July 2025, the withdrawal channels continued to tighten,
until November when the platform ceased operations,
the repayment crisis fully erupted.

Henan girl complains about being urged to take a shower by southern roommates

On December 16, Guangdong. Northern roommates are often urged by southern roommates to take a shower. The Henan girl "frantically complains": "I have to shower every day, it's really not that my skin is afraid of being scrubbed off, why can't I shower once a day or every other day?

In Henan, during the winter, I can go a week without showering and still be clean. In Guangdong, I've taken more showers in the past six months than in the previous ten years."

3 giant whale wallets deposited a total of 37.1 million USDC to increase HYPE tokens today.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, whales are accumulating HYPE on Hyperliquid, with 3 wallets depositing a total of 37.1 million USDC today to increase HYPE tokens.

A newly created wallet "0x23A" deposited 7.1 million USDC and bought 277,420 HYPE at a price of $25.59.

Whale "0xE86" deposited 10 million USDC (a total of 15 million USDC deposited in 2 days), increasing their holdings by 414,997 HYPE (worth $10.19 million). This whale still holds 5.7 million USDC available for further purchases and has 501,494 HYPE (worth $12.3 million) staked.

Whale "0x5Ae" deposited 20 million USDC and placed an order to buy HYPE at a price of $15.

The statement from members of the Japanese government today is that "the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates too early and excessively adjusting monetary support." This should not change the Bank of Japan's interest rate increase action this Friday, but it will affect the subsequent pace of the Bank of Japan. Previously, we talked about the highlights of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting this Friday not being this interest rate increase. Instead, it is about whether the Bank of Japan's outlook on future interest rate policy paths will change, when the next increase will be after this one, and what the future terminal interest rate will be.

Personally, I expect that after this, there will probably be just one or two more increases at most, and the intervals in between will be relatively long (half a year or even longer for another increase). The Bank of Japan's interest rate may need to stop around 1% and take a look.

The core logic is: the Bank of Japan wants to get rid of long-term negative interest rates and move towards interest rate normalization. The economic situation and the fiscal stimulus to be implemented also mean that it is difficult for them to raise interest rates to particularly high levels. The statement from members of the Japanese government today conveys this meaning.

Analysis: The appreciation of the Renminbi may support Bitcoin price trends

According to analysis by CoinDesk Japan, the Renminbi has recently appreciated to 1 USD to 7.043 yuan, a new high since October. The increase this quarter is about 1%, rising 4% from the low in April. Analysts believe that the appreciation of the Renminbi may indirectly benefit Bitcoin through macroeconomic factors and the foreign exchange market.

The strengthening of the Renminbi may prompt China to implement economic stimulus policies to alleviate inflationary pressures, while also driving the US dollar index lower. A weak dollar typically increases the demand for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin. In the coming weeks, whether the appreciation of the Renminbi and its related policies can provide support for Bitcoin will become a focal point of market attention.

Japan's interest rate hike is imminent, the truth behind this viral image! My in-depth analysis

In two days, Japan will raise interest rates! Recently, this image has gone viral, showing that after the last three interest rate hikes in Japan, the market dropped by 31%. However, I believe this is not simply a reversal of the Carry Trade. Let me break down my views step by step: The overall structural reversal of the Carry Trade requires **two major conditions**—expectations of a U.S. recession + continued interest rate hikes in Japan. Why? If the U.S. does not enter a recession, the annualized return on U.S. stocks exceeds 10%, and Japan's current interest rates are simply not attractive enough to draw capital back. These two prerequisites are the anchors of the overall direction and are also the core reasons for the market corrections in previous instances (the last three were not solely due to the Carry Trade, which I will explain later).

Now, will this time result in a complete reversal? **I don’t think so**. Although yesterday's U.S. employment data was weak, it was far from indicating a recession—10-year Treasury bonds and U.S. stocks showed no signs of trading indicating a recession. Therefore, the first condition is not met. Of course, short-term sentiment may trigger de-leveraging, but the overall direction remains unchanged, and the market can absorb it.

Let’s take another look at the last three interest rate hikes and analyze them one by one:

1. **March 2024 First Rate Hike**: Japan's first interest rate hike in 17 years, also canceling the YCC policy and stopping ETF purchases. This marked a turning point from “super-easy” to normalization, with significance far beyond the interest rate hike itself. Meanwhile, Bitcoin soared from 24,000 to 73,000 in six months; the pullback due to the interest rate hike is completely normal and not the main cause of the Carry Trade.

2. **July 31, 2024 Second Hike**: On August 2, the U.S. unemployment rate triggered the Sam Law, leading to panic due to recession expectations + Japan's interest rate hike, which did indeed cause the Carry Trade to de-leverage. However, later, the U.S. did not enter a recession, and after market fluctuations, it recovered, failing to produce a major reversal.

3. **January 2025 Third Hike**: The chart shows a 31% drop to the April low, but the most significant drop occurred in February-March, mainly due to Trump’s tariff hammering the market, not driven by the Carry Trade or interest rate hikes.

In summary, the last three major drops only genuinely involved U.S. recession expectations + interest rate hikes in July last year. The other two were more influenced by external factors.

What about this time? **Unknown, but the overall direction is calm**. No expectations of a U.S. recession, no demand for a Bitcoin surge and pullback. Short-term volatility exceeds my prediction range; I only implement risk control based on triggered conditions: if recession signals appear, I will re-enter. Investors should not be misled by the image but focus on the essence!

Who is creating anxiety over Japan's interest rate hikes? Or is it a calculation error?

First, let’s mention that the previous statistics on Japan's interest rate hike missed July 2024.

The timeline for this round of interest rate hikes in Japan should be:

March 2024, raising the interest rate from -0.1% to around 0.1%.
July 2024, raising the interest rate from around 0.1% to around 0.25%.
January 2025, raising the interest rate from around 0.25% to around 0.5%.
On December 19, 2025, it is expected that the interest rate will be raised from around 0.5% to around 0.75%.

Basically, Japan's interest rate hike cadence is 2 times per year, which is slightly higher than the frequency previously written by Brother Bee, but it’s not extremely frequent.

┈┈➤ The monthly volatility data is purely nonsensical

There is a set of data,

March 2024 dropped by 24%,
July 2024 dropped by 30%,
January 2025 dropped by 32%,
with an average decline of 28.7%.

Brother Bee went to check how this so-called drop was calculated?

▌March 2024

BTC opened at 61206.27, closed at 71316.08, highest at 73805.27, lowest at 59458.63

Only by using highest/lowest-1 can 24% be calculated, isn't this the maximum fluctuation of 24%?!

Moreover, the closing price in March 2024 is clearly higher than the opening price!

▌July 2024

BTC opened at 62672.04, closed at 64613.01, highest at 70015.86, lowest at 53542.23

Likewise, only by using highest/lowest-1 can 30% be calculated.

July 2024 also saw an increase.

Moreover, Japan raised interest rates on July 31, 2024.

In August 2024, BTC closed at 58963.04, which indeed was a drop, down 8.75% compared to the opening, and it cannot be definitively linked to Japan's interest rate hike.

▌January 2025

BTC opened at 93403.02, closed at 102437.64, highest at 109396.43, lowest at 89294.09

This highest/lowest-1 can only calculate the largest number, which is just 22.5%.

Moreover, in January 2025, BTC also increased.

Therefore, this set of data is indeed nonsensical.

┈┈➤ Let’s take a look at the specific volatility situation of interest rate hikes

╰┈✦BTC's volatility

▌March 19, 2024

Japan raised interest rates, from around -0.1% to around 0.1%.

BTC did indeed drop that day, but the next day almost fully recovered. It then continued to rise.

10·11 Insider brother has lost more, now total profit has dropped from $110 million on December 12 to $29 million, and in the past week has lost $75 million.

Why does it feel like the price of $BTC hasn't changed much, and the insider brother has lost even more?

Upon closer inspection, with a position of $540 million in $ETH, the loss is $63 million, which makes it clear.

Could it be that some managed E-guard is trying to use the big brother's money to save themselves?
🤡

This is the largest free trade port in the future world——Hainan!
On December 18,
Forty-seven years ago on this day, a great reform that changed the fate of the nation began.
On the same day forty-seven years later, another milestone event in the history of China's reform and opening up is about to land——the entire Hainan Island will operate under customs closure.
The whole Hainan Island, 33,900 square kilometers, will become a giant "customs supervision special zone." It will become the largest "bonded warehouse" in the world, serving as a "model for the new era of China's reform and opening up."

Hainan's customs closure ignites the whole internet! Singapore's transshipment drops by 11%, China rewrites the global trade pattern.
On December 18, 2025, Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full island customs closure operation. Hainan's customs closure is a special regulatory model of "first line open, second line controlled, and free within the island": foreign goods entering Hainan enjoy a 74% zero tariff on commodity tax categories, equivalent to entering an "international super warehouse"; goods entering the mainland from Hainan are exempt from import tariffs as long as the added value processing exceeds 30%; personnel exchanges are also unaffected, with visa-free policies for 85 countries remaining in place, and the customs clearance efficiency of 1 hour is 5 times faster than Singapore's 5-6 hours. In simple terms, Hainan has opened the "door of openness" even wider.

Hainan officially closes its borders today! Will the second batch of 【Wantong Liujunzi】 appear?

This matter is easy to understand; Hainan is seizing the trade of 【import and export】 and 【shipping services】

1️⃣
Negative impact on Hong Kong: Hong Kong has always relied on geographical arbitrage to make money, but it has been increasingly difficult recently

2️⃣
Impact on Singapore: Singapore's core business is finance and shipping services, which will slightly affect the shipping services industry

$BTC Heatmap Update

Today, the price has retraced to a range with lower liquidity, and new buying pressure has formed around 84K–86K.

The main wall at 98K–100K remains unchanged and is still a highlight on the chart.

Everyone is waiting to see if the 74k sweep will happen, will it?