🚨 The Most Important Week of 2026 Just Started. Here's Everything Moving Markets.
New Fed Chair. Iran deal closing. Hormuz reopening. All hitting the same 5-day window.
Here's the full breakdown:
Monday — Industrial Production
First hard data post-Iran war. If production held up despite 62 days of Hormuz blockade, the economy is more resilient than markets priced. Bullish surprise incoming.
Tuesday — Housing Starts
Mortgage rates at 6.53%. Listing prices down 2.4% YoY — worst since 2017. Expect another weak print confirming the housing correction is accelerating.
Wednesday — The Day Everything Changes
Retail Sales data lands first. Then Kevin Warsh steps into his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Warsh is not Powell. He's a known hawk who believes the Fed moved too slowly on inflation in 2021. But he's also walking into a room where Iran deal tailwinds are actively killing inflation in real time.
Hormuz reopening = oil crashing = CPI falling = his first decision gets made easier by geopolitics.
The market is pricing no cut Wednesday. But Warsh surprising with a dovish signal — not a cut, just language — would be the most powerful one-two punch of the year combined with the Iran deal.
Thursday — Philly Fed Manufacturing
War premium evaporating from input costs. Watch this number closely for the first post-deal economic signal.
Friday — Juneteenth
Markets closed. Use it to review your positioning.
One week. One new Fed Chair. One closing peace deal.
The macro landscape of 2026 gets redrawn this week.
$EVAA
$UAI
$GRASS
#USIranDealConfirmed #TrumpWarnsFranceTradeWarOverDigitalServicesTax #NikkeiCrosses69700ForFirstTime #BondsAndStocksRally #BOJExpectedToHikeRateTo1PctTuesday