TradingShot

Simple yet very powerful chart. This analysis shows Bitcoin (BTCUSD), focused mostly on its Bear Cycles and the S&P500 (SPX) during those time periods. Essentially how the S&P500 performs during BTC's Bear Cycles.
As you can see, Bitcoin has been very consistent with regards to its Bear Cycles (red Rectangles). They have been strong corrections in the forms of Channel Down patterns and highly symmetrical its terms of duration, lasting roughly 1 year.
During those time periods, the S&P500 experienced one very clear Bear Cycles correction, in the form of an aggressive Channel Down in 2022. The one before (2018) was also a Bear Cycle but less aggressive, in the form of a Megaphone. Still it did make a Lower Low at its end. In 2014 however, the S&P500 didn't correct at all but rose within a Channel Up. Not an aggressive one, but a Channel Up nonetheless.
As a result, history shows that the S&P500 doesn't necessarily 'have to' follow BTC's Bear Cycles and has been less consistent. However, given that SPX's current price action since BTC's Bear Cycles isn't either a Channel Up or a Channel Down, it resembles more that of a Megaphone. In fact, so far it fits perfectly within the 2018 Megaphone. As long as its top holds, we may see a correction to a Lower Low in the second half of 2026. Then again, the market may provide a completely different pattern this time but so far it looks more like the highly volatile and turbulent period of the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Tron (TRXUSD) has been showing incredible resilience as of late, as despite the correction of the last few months, it is about to test the August 2025 Highs.
Its 1W RSI pattern though, which is under Lower Highs with the price testing the trend-line now, is on a similar pattern as the 2021-2022 Bear Cycle. It was during that 3rd rally and Lower Highs test (May 02 2022) that TRX got rejected and started its final Bearish Leg.
That final correction hit and bottomed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which was also on the Support level of the Bear Cycle as formed by the June 21 2021 Low. At the same time, the 1W RSI bottomed around 33.00 (almost oversold).
Pay particular attention to the 1W RSI as its December 02 2024 High was priced on the same level as the March 29 2021 High of the previous Bear Cycle. If this symmetry continues, we may also see it bottoming on the 33.00 Support again.
As a result, taking into account all the above parameters, TRX's 0.20250 Support seems like a strong candidate for this Bear Cycle bottom, which by October - November 2026, may again make contact with the 1W MA200. If however the 1W RSI hits the 33.00 Support first, we will turn long-term bullish on Tron regardless of the price.
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$TRX #Tron #TRX #Trxusdt #TRXUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance, for the first time since November 03 2025. A rejection here will confirm the extension of the Bear Cycle, which continues to be replicating the price action of the 2022 Cycle.
Technically both share a similar structure even before the Bear Cycles. The recent February Low breached below the All Time High (ATH) of the previous Cycle (red circle), which is exactly what the 2022 Bear Cycle did on he week of June 13 2022 (blue circle). After that, BTC made one last Low on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line), just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous Cycle, which just happened to be on the June 24 2019 High (orange circle).
That 0.786 Fib High trend-line now matches exactly the 1W MA350 and by August - September 2026 can make contact with the price at $50000. This is why we expect that to be the minimum Target of the current Bear Cycle and why Bitcoin should reverse to the downside again soon.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been following the exact same pattern of the USDT Dominance (blue trend-line) during the 2020 - 2022 period.
As you can see the USDT.D 's Triple Top (blue circles) on that previous Cycle was initially a Support for BTC during the Bull Cycle and then the first Low during the Bear Cycle (green circles).
When the USDT.D broke above it, BTC made a new Lower Low and on the USDT.D's subsequent pull-back, it formed a new Bear Flag. That was contained below BTC's 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which got tested last week and when the USDT.D resumed the upside, Bitcoin went on to form the Bear Cycle bottom on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line).
This is why our minimum Target for this Bear Cycle (and the starting level of new our long-term buy strategy) is $50000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has reached a strong Resistance cluster where historically the three previous Bear Cycles got rejected into a strong sell-off.
Following February's Low just above the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), BTC is now on its 3rd straight green month so far but is testing the Pivot line. That was formerly a Support (on 1M candle body closings), which on the previous Bear Cycles turned into the Resistance that kick-started the Cycle's 2nd and final crash.
At the same time, the 1M MA20 (blue trend-line), which is directly above, historically breaks to the upside a year after it's broken downwards on a Bear Cycle. The Lower Highs trend-line presence has also added extra pressure on this Resistance cluster (blue circles).
As a result, it is more likely for Bitcoin to reverse here towards the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), above which the bottom of the last Bear Cycle was priced. Notice how all Bear Cycles formed the same Cup bottom formation (red). A repeat of the above can easily see the market hit $45000 before bottoming, which aligns with various other technical models we've covered.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

The Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rally of the past 6 weeks has taken place after the Fear and Greed (F&G) indicator rebounded on the Fear Zone. From the start of the current Bear Cycle, that was only the 2nd time it hit Fear and there's been a very distinct correlation between that Indicator and past Bear Cycles.
In the past 12 years, every Bear Cycle had the F&G touch the Fear Zone three times before the Cycle bottomed. Following the 3rd Fear test, BTC bottomed a little after. As mentioned we are still on the 2nd Fear test on the current Bear Cycle and a price reversal now, may see the F&G hit Fear again around July. This aligns perfectly with the 4-year Cycle (1-year Bear Cycle) expectation of a Bottom around October 2026.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to test its 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which as shown yesterday has been a key Resistance during past Bear Cycles. Besides that, it also entered a major Resistance Zone that has gone overlooked by the market.
That is the Pivot Zone (blue Rectangle), which started on a previous Low (Support) and is now tested as a High (Resistance). These 'Stepping Stones' that we call them, were emphatically present during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle and in fact were the underlying structure that guided the downtrend all the way to the bottom. The circles point the levels of contact both as Support and as Resistance.
Right now BTC rallied on the 3rd such Zone its Bear Cycle and is testing the 2nd formed by the previous Low. Along with the 1D MA200, that is technically a major Resistance cluster and a rejection here confirms the continuation of the Bear Cycle towards $50000 while a break-out, its invalidation.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross last Wednesday and is headed for its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a level that has been intact since November 03 2025, acting as the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance.
In fact, it has been the technical Resistance on all previous BTC Bear Cycles since 2014. As these charts show Bitcoin tested the 1W MA200 around the same time on those years as now and every time it hit it, the price instantly reversed to an aggressive sell-off.
The 1D MA200 test coincided with a test (or near test) of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (blue) level. In 2014 and 2022 it also took place exactly on a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross formation, which as mentioned just happened.
At the same time, on all previous three Bear Cycles, the 1D MA200 test took place just before the 0.5 Time Fibonacci (dashed black). If the current Bear Cycle ends up roughly 1-year long, then we are currently 3 weeks after its middle. Unless we have a slighter longer than 1 year one, like 2014.
In any event the symmetry among Cycles and basic structure seems to hold almost flawlessly. As a result, with the 1D MA200 currently at 83500, it appears that BTC is headed towards a rejection and last month's strong rally could be nothing more than a 'Bull Trap' as it has been historically and will open up the way for one more round of aggressive selling until the eventual Bear Cycle bottom.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

We presented this idea 2 months ago but maybe this way it is visually easier to understand.
Dogecoin's (DOGEUSD) failure to post a new All Time High (ATH) during its last Bull Cycle (2023 - 2024) resembles XRP's (XRPUSD) identical ATH failure during its 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle.
In fact, the whole macro multi-year structure among the two are similar with DOGE 'lagging' behind XRP around 3.5 years in price action. Of course this is not a real lag but the pattern's are indeed almost identical.
It remains to be seen if Doge eventually finds now Support but since February it has stabilized and may turn sideways for the rest of the Bear Cycle just like XRP did in June 2022 and spent the remaining 6 months of the Bear Cycle consolidating. Let's not forget that DOGE also bottomed in June 2022 before Bitcoin and the general crypto market during its 2021 - 2022 Bear Cycle and didn't basically had a sustainable rally before 2024.
If the pattern gets repeated exactly like XRP, then Doge can reach $1.00 by mid to late 2028.
Notice also how DOGE's 2018 - 2020 Cycle resembles XRP's 2014 - 2016 Cycle and the massive parabolic rallies that followed on both have been identical.
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$DOGE #DOGE #Dogecoin‬⁩ #DOGEUSDT #DOGEUSD #signals

Kevin Warsh is expected to become the new Federal Reserve Chair on May 15 2026 and such news aren't exactly encouraging for Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
In fact they have been catastrophic historically as in the past 12 years and the last 3 Fed Chair terms, BTC has always declined significantly from the first day of the new Char in office.
On February 03 2014, Janet Yellen was sworn into office and Bitcoin made a -80% total crash before it bottomed. Jerome Powell's 1st term started on February 05 2018, with the price crashing -73.50% in almost 1 year. Powell's 2nd term started on May 23 2022, recording a -62% total decline.
As those terms follow BTC's Bear Cycles, they too are on a decreasing pace each time. Powell's 2nd term was -11.50% less than the previous. Assuming Warsh's holds at least this (could technically be even less), we can expect a -50.50% decline from the May 2026 High, which translates to $40000. Buy since, as mentioned, it gets less each time, that is why we maintain a Buy Zone of 50-40k. The 1M MA100 (green trend-line) is likely to be tested during this bottoming process.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

First of all Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate it and on that note, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed 2 straight green months! This is a rare feat for a Bear Cycle as since 2011 and the first ever Bear Cycle, BTC recorded 2 straight green 1M candles only on two occasions.
First time during the 2014 Bear Cycle between May - June and a second time during the 2022 Bear Cycle between February - March. So the third time ever for that feat just took place. There have never been 3 straight green months on a Bear Cycle, so historically we should see BTC resuming the downtrend this month.
It is also interesting to note that both previous occasions took place exactly half-way (2014) through the Bear Cycle or marginally earlier (2022). This technically confirms the sentiment that we have been expressing on previous analyses, that we are currently in the middle of the 2026 Bear Cycle.
Also, we have a historic first. With April's closing, we have this month the first ever emergence of the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line, actually dash). Despite Bitcoin being around since 2009, it just now completed the necessary price (candle) action to display a 1M MA200 and that just shows what investing is about on the long-term scale. Patience.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is starting a new day following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, where the committee left the rates unchanged. This chart shows that statistically the Fed meetings have been incredibly bearish for the market.
More specifically, 9 out of the last 10 meetings delivered strong declines. Measuring from tops a little before or straight after the Fed days, the 'weakest' decline has been -5.85% and the strongest -33.08%. What's striking is that the corrections have been evenly spread between both the Bear and Bull Cycle. In fact the Bull Cycle had the 2nd strongest decline of -27.99% as well as the 3rd (-16.21%).
As a result, it is highly likely to see another strong decline (market has been actually falling since Monday), which may be a continuation of the Bear Cycle to its next and final Phase.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down for the entirety of its Bear Cycle since the August 24 2025 All Time High (ATH). The price is now marginally below the Top (Lower Highs trend-line) of this pattern, having just broken above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Bearish Leg got rejected.
This pattern has so far had two Bearish Legs, both strongly symmetrical. The 1st declined by -47%, while the second completed a -48.69% total drop. Right now it appears that we are getting out of the standard consolidation phase that kick-starts the next Bearish Leg. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds as a Resistance, the pattern remains valid and the 3rd Bearish Leg should start.
A new -47% correction would put us a little under the April 09 2025 Low. As a result, our Target Zone is $1390 - $1300.
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$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #ETHUSD #signals

This chart is a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) full Cycle activity both Bull and Bear. The symmetry of the Bull Cycle has been incredible, from Bottom to Top it can be divided exactly into three Stages of 50 weeks (350 days) each and those further into two, bringing us 6 Phases in total.
If we apply the same 350 day duration on the Bear Cycle from its October 06 2025 Top, we get a September 21 2026 potential Bottom expectation, which is virtually the same as early October two weeks later. Applying the same Phase structure, we can see that BTC has already entered Phase 2, which is obviously the final one of the Bear Cycle.
This 'Tomography' also confirms the 4-year Cycle Theory and it remains to be seen at which price the Bear Cycle bottoms. The previous one bottomed exactly on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), so as mentioned many times before, we are looking for at least a $50000 test before it bottoms (more likely around 45k).
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a 4H Channel Up since the February 06 Low which on the 1D time-frame though is the 3rd of a series of similar patterns. The November 2025 - January 2026 one turned out to be a Bear Flag, the first of the Bear Cycle that started since the October 06 2025 All Time High (ATH).
Having already broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where it got rejected on January 14 2026, BTC sees now the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the next Resistance, which is key, as all previous Bear Cycles tested it (and got rejected).
The presence of RSI Lower Highs both on the 1D and 4H charts, should make us skeptical. On 4H and the even shorter Channel Up (blue) that was initiated after the March 30 Low, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is what's holding the pattern from a correction below the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci level. Critical days for the Cycle as a whole ahead of us.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has historically made a Cycle Top within 8 - 11 months after the price made a convincing 1M candle closing above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance. At the same time, it has made a Cycle Bottom within 21 - 23 months after that same break-out occurred.
While that technical evidence is enough alone, here comes the 1M RSI to further confirm that model. Those same Cycle bottoms have occurred at or 1 month before the 1M RSI hit its Lower Lows trend-line (Fibonacci Channel bottom) as shown by the green circles.
Based on the above, an October 2026 Cycle bottom is very likely to occur and with the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) posing as the next Cycle Support, this can take place within a $45000 - 40000 Zone.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is quite possibly having the last rally before it starts the 2nd and final Phase of the Bear Cycle. Technically this Super Cycles chart shows that once the price breaks below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the Bear Cycle remains valid until it recovers it.
For now it is in effect and if we assume a -6% deceleration on the %rate of each Bear Cycle total decline from the previous, then the current one (2026) could bottom after a -72% drop, giving us $35000. We've shown in previous analyses why 45-40k is the most likely Buy Zone candidate and this is why it is a solid idea for long-term investors to start accumulating at $50000. Right now, we expect this 2nd and part of the Bear Cycle to deliver that final crash to breach 50k.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is staging a strong rally this month, following the first green month (March) after 5 straight red. So is this the bottom? Not quite based on the Halving Cycle's Theory.
On this chart you can see that since the July 2016 Halving, every Bull Cycle Top was priced on the 0.382 Time Fibonacci level (red circle) between Halving dates. Similarly the Bear Cycle Bottoms were priced on the 0.618 Time Fib (green circle).
Right now the market found Support exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) with the previous Bear Cycle bottoming just above the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). The last Cycle Top was priced exactly on the 0.382 Fib and the next 0.618 is on October 2026 based on the expected April 2028 Halving.
So based on this highly effective model, the current 2026 Bear Cycle should bottom this October, which is consistent with the majority of analyses and models we've used. Technically is should test the 1M MA100 as well, so (again consistent with our past analyses) this should be closer to $40000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

There has been some confusion lately on whether Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is still on a Bear Cycle or not. Some still go as far as claiming that the market never entered a Bear Cycle and that based on some custom Liquidity Cycles that the -50% October - February crash has just been a 'normal' correction within a wider Bull Cycle. That is why today we decided to go back to the basics.
On the left side of the chart you see a clear Bull Cycle. Starting on a Bear Cycle bottom with the price confirming the Bull Cycle by breaking and closing above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which up until that point has been the Bear Cycle's Resistance. What follows is a clear long-term uptrend with a streak of Bull Flags supported by the 1W MA50 until the eventual Bull Cycle Top.
On the right side of the chart you see a clear Bear Cycle. Starting on that exact Bull Cycle Top with the price confirming the Bear Cycle by breaking and closing below the 1W MA50, which up until that point (as mentioned) has been the Bull Cycle's Support. What followed up until today is a 6-month downtrend with so far two Bear Flags suppressed below the 1W MA50. The next Support in line is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
And that's the structural difference between a Bull and a Bear Cycle. Same only inverse. So what BTC is currently at is a Bear Flag that is gearing up for the new Leg downwards. For reference we have taken the post June 2022 fractal (black trend-line) and added it as price action on the current Bear Cycle to see a projection of how it may unfold on a potential October 2026 bottom according to the 4-year Cycle Theory.
So that's it. Nothing more. If that helps a little clearing up the (understandable) confusion, I'd appreciate you telling us.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Cardano (ADAUSD) has been within a Bear Cycle since its December 02 2024 High and within a Channel Down since the August 11 2025 High. This Channel Down is technically the Bearish Leg of the 5-year pattern that started since the previous Bear Cycle.
So far it has been very similar to the 2022 one and based on the 1W RSI Bullish Divergence, we might be in a similar spot as June 2022. Depending on how strong the rest of the market drops, ADA can repeat a -92.30% Bearish Leg, targeting at least $0.1000.
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#Cardano $ADA #ADA #ADAUSDT #ADAUSD #signals