The old dog checked the order book for $AMAT , and over the last 24 hours, it’s printed a 6.703% green candle, with the price sitting at $584.98. The volume shot up to 1.46 million contracts, which isn’t astronomical, but considering this asset's usual lethargy, it’s definitely a noticeable move. What caught the old dog's attention even more is that the funding rate has quietly climbed to 0.0129%, which is positive, indicating that the bulls are paying the bears. Right now, the longs in the casino clearly have the upper hand. Open interest, however, hasn’t exploded, sitting at 1582.4 contracts, and the order book is as thin as paper.
This momentum could push higher, largely due to the rotation happening in the on-chain US stock sector. There’s no comparable coin, so today, $AMAT is flying solo. Applied Materials, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, doesn’t need much explanation from the old dog regarding fundamentals, but at this moment, there’s no earnings report catalyst; it’s purely the funds pushing it. The positive funding rate aligning with the price increase is a structure I’ve seen many times: the bulls feel confident, but the position size doesn’t follow, indicating that new money isn’t entering the game, just existing bulls adding to their positions. It’s like balancing on a seesaw with no thick cushion underneath; if it slips, it’s all needles. In the big trades, I’ve noticed a few hundred contracts getting eaten up, but the thickness of the buy and sell orders is generally average, suggesting that the big market makers are waiting for deeper liquidity.
The old dog’s take is clear: the $580 level is a psychological barrier. If it can’t hold in the Asian session tomorrow, I’ll cut my position by 60%, not going to gamble against the market. If it can push through $600 with volume, I might chase it, but only in spot and not touching contracts. There’s a buzz in the market saying $AMAT is going to test the previous high, but I disagree. The combination of a positive funding rate and low open interest often indicates the tail end of a wave, not a signal to launch. I lost two months' profits years ago to the same trick on another stock, learned my lesson, so this time I’ll keep just an observation position. The old dog is also wary of getting rekt; it’s my money, and talk is cheap compared to real capital.
Last time $AMAT rallied to around $550, I called a breakout, but it dumped for three days, leaving me cold with sweat. I’m sensing that familiar smell again; let’s hope I’m not scaring myself.
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