$BTC $USDT x
#brl For this comparison, I will use the USD/BRL exchange rate as a reference and will consider:
Dollar performance: appreciation/depreciation against the real.
Real performance: the inverse of the same exchange rate (strengthening/weakening).
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Analyzed Period: 01/08/2024 to 31/01/2025
(based on approximate historical data)
๐ Evolution of USD/BRL:
Start of the period (01/08/2024): ~ R$ 5.40
End of the period (31/01/2025): ~ R$ 4.90
Variation in the period: a decrease of approximately 9.26% in USD/BRL.
๐ Performance Interpretation:
Dollar performance against the real:
The dollar depreciated against the real.
Those who bought dollars 6 months ago and sold now incurred losses in reais.
Real performance against the dollar:
The real appreciated against the dollar.
Those who had reais and bought dollars can now get more dollars with the same amount of reais.
โ
Conclusion: which had better performance?
The REAL was the currency with the best performance in these 6 months, appreciating about 10.2% against the dollar.
The DOLLAR had negative performance against the real, losing about 9.26%.
Main factors that influenced (recent context):
Brazilian monetary policy: maintenance of still high interest rates by the BCB, attracting capital flows.
Expectations of interest rate cuts in the USA: in 2024/2025, the Fed signaled possible easing, putting pressure on the dollar globally.
Improvement in Brazilian fundamentals: fiscal control, inflation under control, influx of foreign investments.
Commodities: prices of Brazilian exports (such as iron ore and soybeans) still favorable, generating an influx of dollars.
๐ Summary in table:
Currency Variation against the other Performance
Real (BRL) Appreciation of ~10.2% Positive
Dollar (USD) Depreciation of ~9.26% Negative
Important note: This analysis considers only the USD/BRL pair. The performance of a currency should also be viewed against a basket of currencies (like the DXY index for the dollar), but specifically in the bilateral relationship, the real was clearly stronger during this period.