btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance, for the first time since November 03 2025. A rejection here will confirm the extension of the Bear Cycle, which continues to be replicating the price action of the 2022 Cycle.
Technically both share a similar structure even before the Bear Cycles. The recent February Low breached below the All Time High (ATH) of the previous Cycle (red circle), which is exactly what the 2022 Bear Cycle did on he week of June 13 2022 (blue circle). After that, BTC made one last Low on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line), just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous Cycle, which just happened to be on the June 24 2019 High (orange circle).
That 0.786 Fib High trend-line now matches exactly the 1W MA350 and by August - September 2026 can make contact with the price at $50000. This is why we expect that to be the minimum Target of the current Bear Cycle and why Bitcoin should reverse to the downside again soon.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been following the exact same pattern of the USDT Dominance (blue trend-line) during the 2020 - 2022 period.
As you can see the USDT.D 's Triple Top (blue circles) on that previous Cycle was initially a Support for BTC during the Bull Cycle and then the first Low during the Bear Cycle (green circles).
When the USDT.D broke above it, BTC made a new Lower Low and on the USDT.D's subsequent pull-back, it formed a new Bear Flag. That was contained below BTC's 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which got tested last week and when the USDT.D resumed the upside, Bitcoin went on to form the Bear Cycle bottom on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line).
This is why our minimum Target for this Bear Cycle (and the starting level of new our long-term buy strategy) is $50000.
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Bitcoin $BTC is showing impressive stability on the 1-hour timeframe as price continues trading above the psychological $80,000 level. Current market structure suggests buyers are still defending key support zones despite recent volatility across the crypto market.
According to the chart, BTC $BTC is trading near $80,533, maintaining short-term bullish momentum after bouncing from the $79,200 region. The market recently tested the local high around $80,666, and traders are now watching closely for a possible breakout continuation.
The moving averages are also giving mixed-but-optimistic signals:
MA(7) remains above MA(25), showing short-term bullish control.Price is still battling near the MA(99), which acts as a strong dynamic resistance zone.Volume remains relatively stable, meaning the market is waiting for a catalyst before the next explosive move.
From a technical perspective, BTC$BTC appears to be forming a consolidation structure above support. If bulls successfully hold the $80.1K–$80.3K area, the market could attempt another push toward the recent high and potentially higher resistance levels.
Key levels traders are watching:
Support: $80,141 → $79,820Resistance: $80,666 → $80,800+Breakout confirmation: Strong candle close above local resistance with rising volume.
y=80000+666sin⁡(x)y=80000+666sin(x)
At the moment, momentum favors cautious bullish continuation, but traders should still manage risk carefully because rejection near resistance could trigger short-term profit-taking.
For swing traders and scalpers, patience is important here. Entering after confirmation is often safer than chasing candles during consolidation phases.
As always in crypto trading:
Follow volume.Respect stop losses.Avoid emotional entries.
The market is giving signals — now traders wait to see whether Bitcoin turns this consolidation into another breakout rally.
#btc #BTCUSD #crypto #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

#BTCUSD

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has reached a strong Resistance cluster where historically the three previous Bear Cycles got rejected into a strong sell-off.
Following February's Low just above the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), BTC is now on its 3rd straight green month so far but is testing the Pivot line. That was formerly a Support (on 1M candle body closings), which on the previous Bear Cycles turned into the Resistance that kick-started the Cycle's 2nd and final crash.
At the same time, the 1M MA20 (blue trend-line), which is directly above, historically breaks to the upside a year after it's broken downwards on a Bear Cycle. The Lower Highs trend-line presence has also added extra pressure on this Resistance cluster (blue circles).
As a result, it is more likely for Bitcoin to reverse here towards the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), above which the bottom of the last Bear Cycle was priced. Notice how all Bear Cycles formed the same Cup bottom formation (red). A repeat of the above can easily see the market hit $45000 before bottoming, which aligns with various other technical models we've covered.
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The Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rally of the past 6 weeks has taken place after the Fear and Greed (F&G) indicator rebounded on the Fear Zone. From the start of the current Bear Cycle, that was only the 2nd time it hit Fear and there's been a very distinct correlation between that Indicator and past Bear Cycles.
In the past 12 years, every Bear Cycle had the F&G touch the Fear Zone three times before the Cycle bottomed. Following the 3rd Fear test, BTC bottomed a little after. As mentioned we are still on the 2nd Fear test on the current Bear Cycle and a price reversal now, may see the F&G hit Fear again around July. This aligns perfectly with the 4-year Cycle (1-year Bear Cycle) expectation of a Bottom around October 2026.
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