bigestthreat

The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 has exploded to nearly 80%.
Just a day ago, it was only around 10%-15%.
And this is a serious liquidity risk for crypto.
Democrats have made it clear they will block the spending bill unless key DHS funding provisions are removed, and Republicans are not backing down, which means a shutdown is now a real possibility.
And here is the dangerous part:
The debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1 trillion.
That means politicians can afford to fight longer without instantly breaking government operations, which actually increases the chance of a shutdown.
But if that's the case, why would crypto suffer?
When a shutdown starts, the US Treasury usually rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA). To do that, it pulls money out of financial markets.
Last time this happened, the TGA increased by about $220 billion. That was a $220B liquidity drain from markets, and crypto cannot handle that.
Last shutdown cycle:
• Markets pumped for a short time
• Liquidity dried up
• Then crypto collapsed
• BTC and ETH dropped 20%-25%
• Altcoins dropped much more
And one of the biggest factors behind this was the liquidity crisis.
This time, the setup is even worse.
• Liquidity is already thin.
• Market confidence is already weak.
• Institutions are mostly in stocks and gold.
• Volatility is already high
Crypto is already swinging violently on small flows.
A shutdown-driven liquidity drain could be devastating and result in an even more brutal dump. @Walrus 🦭/acc #walrus @Cellula Re-poster #dusk @Vanar #vanar $VANRY
$DUSK
$WAL

Take a look at this picture.
The U.S. debt crisis is intensifying to levels we haven't seen in DECADES.
If you have ANY money invested, you need to read this:
~26% of US federal debt is set to mature within the next 12 months. #Bigestthreat
If things were normal, this might be manageable.
But trust me, this is not normal.
We’re looking at one of the largest refinancing cliffs of this century.
And here’s the part nobody wants to hear…
IT WILL DRAIN LIQUIDITY FROM THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
By comparison, the last peak was ~29% in 2020.
But back then? The Fed interest rates were at 0%. Money was free.
Now, rates stand at ~3.75%.
This means ~$10 TRILLION in debt must be refinanced at significantly higher rates over the coming year.
The US Treasury is trying to hide the pain...
They shifted to issuing shorter-dated bonds to minimize interest costs in the near term.
But this just kicks the can down the road.
Who’s going to buy all of this debt?
The market is pricing in 2 cuts this year, but that won't fix the supply issue.
So the Treasury has to flood the market with bonds.
This sucks liquidity out of other assets worldwide.
This includes:
– Stocks
– Crypto
– Risk Assets
– Literally anything that needs liquidity
I expect the massive supply of government debt to put a ceiling on risk assets over the next 12 to 24 months.
I’ll keep you updated on the outcome.
I’ll send my $0-$1M guide to more people today. Like this tweet and comment "GUIDE" if you want it.
Btw i called the last 3 market top and bottom publicly, including the bitcoin ATH at $126k in october.$WAL
@Walrus 🦭/acc #walrus