**🚨 MARKET ALERT: Bitcoin Faces Potential 20% Downside**
Research head at Bitwise Europe, André Dragosch, has issued a cautious outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting the asset could face further downward pressure in the near term.
**Key Insights from the BTC Prague Conference:**
* **"Max Pain" Scenario:** Dragosch highlighted that Bitcoin could see an additional **20% decline** from current levels, identifying the long-term holder cost basis of approximately **$48,000** as the potential "max pain" bottom.
* **Structural Supports:** Analysts are closely watching several critical levels currently sitting below the spot price:
* **200-week Moving Average:** ~$61,000
* **Realized Price:** ~$56,000
* **Long-Term Holder Cost Basis:** ~$48,000
* **Institutional Selling Pressure:** The recent pullback has been largely attributed to a net outflow of roughly **$2 billion** from Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) weekly, representing about 50,000 BTC hitting the market.
* **Broader Consensus:** Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn echoed these sentiments, noting that Bitcoin has not yet reached a definitive cycle bottom. Galaxy’s baseline projection anticipates a potential floor between **$40,000 and $46,000** extending into Q4 2026.
While Bitwise’s "cycle bottom probability model" has begun to trend slightly upward, indicators remain well below the extremes typically associated with previous cycle bottoms. Market participants are now looking toward the potential passage of the CLARITY Act as a primary catalyst to shift sentiment and spark the next wave of momentum. 📉⚖️
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