fedwatch

Bitcoin’s push toward $74,000 is getting attention for a simple reason. It does not look like a random spike. The move has been supported by fresh spot ETF inflows with roughly $587 million added over the week while broader markets are still dealing with oil driven macro tension and uneven risk appetite. What stands out to me is the tone of this rally. It feels more measured than euphoric. Bitcoin briefly traded near $74,000 in early March but it also pulled back which suggests traders are still cautious and not blindly chasing. That matters. The real progress here is that Bitcoin is showing resilience while traditional assets remain shaky and institutional demand is still showing up in the background. The next question is whether this strength holds through the March 17 to 18 Fed meeting. For now the story is less about hype and more about durability.

#bitcoin #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarkets #FedWatch #Write2Earn $BTC

Hello fellow investors and traders,
The digital asset market is caught in a tug-of-war between current accumulation and legislative stalling. While the 'investor bid' remains robust, the lack of immediate progress on the Clarity Act is keeping a lid on the broader recovery. 🏛️
Here are the key insights from the current market structure:
⚖️ Legislative Stagnation: Initial optimism surrounding the Clarity Act has cooled as progress on the regulatory front remains slow. Market participants are closely monitoring the Senate for any signs of a breakthrough that could provide the long-awaited 'market structure' certainty.
🏦 The BlackRock Engine: Institutional demand remains the primary support pillar. US-listed spot ETFs recorded over 630 mln USD in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone driving over 300 mln USD. Bitcoin ETFs captured 461.9 mln USD, while ether ETFs saw a healthy 169.4 mln USD influx.
🦅 Dovish Whispers: While the CME FedWatch tool suggests a rate cut in March is highly unlikely (under 3%), recent comments from the Fed’s Miran regarding the 'room for a rate cut' have kept a glimmer of hope alive for a policy shift later in 2026.
📉 Liquidity Squeeze: Exchange balances have dipped below the 3 mln BTC mark, a 6-week low. While drying liquidity can exacerbate volatility, the 'Adjusted Supply in Profit' hitting typical bear cycle lows has some speculators betting on a potential cycle bottom.

The Bottom Line: We are in a delicate phase. While the ETF inflows provide a solid floor, the lack of a definitive regulatory catalyst suggests that this recovery could still be a 'Dead Cat Bounce' if the Clarity Act continues to stall.
Do you believe the 'BlackRock Bid' is enough to sustain prices without the help of the Clarity Act? Let's discuss below.

#bitcoin #ether #clarityact #fedwatch #marketanalysis
$BTC $ETH
Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Farside Investors, Glassnode

#FedWatch
The relationship between global M2 (money supply) and Bitcoin (BTC) is a significant area of interest for investors and analysts in the cryptocurrency market. Here’s a comprehensive analysis based on the provided references:

Understanding M2 Money Supply💰
- Definition: M2 money supply includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. It serves as a crucial indicator of liquidity in the economy.
- Impact on Investments: When M2 expands, liquidity typically flows into high-yielding investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Key Relationships Between Global M2 and Bitcoin
1. Historical Correlation:
- Bitcoin has historically reacted positively to increases in global M2 money supply. Analysts note that Bitcoin tends to move in the direction of M2 approximately 83% of the time.
- The year-on-year fixed exchange rate for M2 of major central banks reached 3.65% in January 2025, indicating a trend that could favor Bitcoin's price movement.

2. Liquidity and Price Movements:
- A surge in global M2 often correlates with rallies in Bitcoin prices. As liquidity increases, it creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin to appreciate.
- Recent discussions around easing monetary policies by central banks in Europe and China suggest that increased liquidity could lead to a recovery in the crypto market, particularly for Bitcoin.

3. Market Sentiment:
- Investors are anticipating a potential Bitcoin surge due to the increase in M2, as historical patterns indicate that rising liquidity tends to boost Bitcoin's valuation.
- The current contraction in M2 may signal a temporary bottom for Bitcoin, with expectations of a rebound as liquidity conditions improve.

4. Cautionary Notes:
- While the correlation is strong, analysts caution against over-reliance on M2 as a sole indicator for Bitcoin's price movements, as other variables can influence market dynamics.

Conclusion 🔍
The relationship between global M2 money supply and Bitcoin is characterized by a strong historical correlation where increases in M2 often lead to positive price movements for Bitcoin. As liquidity expands, it creates a conducive environment for Bitcoin's growth, making it a critical factor for investors to monitor. However, it is essential to consider other market variables and not solely depend on M2 for investment decisions.
$BTC