【March 11 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、
#G7 Group Statement: Support for taking proactive measures to respond to the current situation, including the use of strategic oil reserves;
2、Institutions: The global economy is resilient, and the risk of stagflation this time is much lower than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict;
3、Coinbase: Indicators show that recent spot demand has been strong enough to absorb excess selling pressure;
4、Institutions:
#Japan The central bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in March.
Today, the G7 statement supports the use of strategic oil reserves to respond to the situation, with oil prices becoming the core driving force in the market, potentially overshadowing tonight's U.S. February inflation data. Trump stated that the conflict will end soon, which eased market sentiment slightly, but there is still close attention on the evolution of the situation. Although inflation data is usually a key indicator, the impact of this release on the market and Federal Reserve policy may be limited, as geopolitical uncertainty has reduced investors' focus on economic indicators. Thanks to the resilience of the global economy, the current risk of stagflation is far lower than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Although the market is concerned about soaring oil prices triggering inflation shocks, the probability of sustained inflation is not high, and the one-year inflation breakeven rate in the U.S. has already broken upward, while medium- and long-term interest rates remain stable.
In the cryptocurrency market, since late February, the short-term holders' SOPR indicators for
#BTC and
#ETH have rebounded, indicating strong spot demand, sufficient to absorb selling pressure, and the market structure is becoming healthier. This shows that new entrants have not exhibited panic selling, and the 'weaker hands' have been cleaned out. Against the backdrop of increased geopolitical risks and traditional market volatility, BTC's safe-haven attributes are expected to be highlighted. If high oil prices are accompanied by stable long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's policy constraints and falling real interest rates will create a favorable environment for BTC, and the warming of short-term holder indicators will also lay the foundation for subsequent price increases.