nividia

On December 1, 2025, Nvidia AI chips became central to creating a new market for GPU-backed loans, allowing cloud computing startups to raise over 20 billion dollars in supported funding. According to Jim Chanos, an investor known for his early predictions, these companies are aiming to compete with tech giants in the field of artificial intelligence. These companies have used the capital they raised to purchase more AI chips with the goal of expanding their operations and enhancing their capabilities.

Wall Street cheered. Retail piled in. Almost nobody read the filings.
Nvidia’s Q3 was a monster:
• $57B in revenue — up 112% YoY
• Stock popped 3%, adding $131B in a day
But the SEC filings tell a very different story.
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THE $112 BILLION BLACK HOLE
Since 2018, Nvidia produced $188B in cash.
Shareholders saw $92B of it.
The remaining $112B?
Gone — absorbed by employee stock compensation.
Even worse:
Nvidia bought back shares at an average $2,394, then issued 47 million new shares to insiders.
Shareholders paid. Insiders won.
Retail got diluted.
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MARGINS ARE CRACKING
Gross margins fell from 74.6% → 73.4% in a single quarter.
The first drop since 2022.
This during so-called “insane demand” and “$500B in orders.”
When a monopoly loses margin during a shortage, it’s not a shortage anymore — it’s competition.
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THE ENERGY MATH DOESN’T WORK
AI isn’t just running into competition.
It’s running into physics.
• The U.S. adds ~45GW of power per year
• AI demand by 2030: 250–350GW
• Shortfall: 120–180GW
That’s 5× the scale of the Manhattan Project… in five years.
Impossible.
Gas turbines? Sold out through 2030.
Nuclear? Not scaling until at least 2035.
Nvidia can ship the chips.
But America doesn’t have the electricity to run them.
Power costs are rising 40% a year.
By 2027, electricity costs exceed chip costs.
When power becomes the bottleneck, the AI model breaks.
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SMART MONEY ALREADY LEFT
SoftBank dumped $5.8B before earnings.
Peter Thiel exited his entire position — 40% of his fund.
They walked away before the $131B pump.
They don’t ring a bell at the top…
but sometimes the exits speak louder than the charts.
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THE ROTATION SIGNAL
Market reaction was muted:
• S&P: +0.53%
• Nasdaq: +0.03%
• Bitcoin: $91,234, decoupling from tech
Correlation: 0.64 → 0.41
Rotation just started.
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THE REAL TAKEAWAY
Centralized AI hits a hard power wall by 2027–2028.
When electricity is more expensive than GPUs, the economics flip.
Decentralization wins:
• Open models catch up by mid-2026
• Distributed compute is 12× more energy efficient
• Power costs become local, not corporate
The $112B insider transfer, the margin erosion, and the looming energy crisis?
None of it is priced in.
The next wave won’t be centralized AI.
It’ll be decentralized compute chains.
And Bitcoin is already signaling the rotation.
#bitcoin #AI #Nividia
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