nonfarm

The U.S. jobs market continues to exhibit strength with the government reporting the addition of 303,000 jobs last month. That's the strongest headline number since May 2023 and easily topped economist forecasts for 200,000 and February's 270,000 additions (revised from a previously reported 275,000).

The unemployment rate in March dipped to 3.8% against expectations for 3.9% and February's 3.9%.

The price of bitcoin {{BTC}} fell about 0.5% in the minutes following Friday morning's report to $66,000. In traditional markets, U.S. stock index futures gave up a chunk of earlier gains, but are still modestly higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.38% and the dollar index added 0.5%.

Coming into 2024, markets had priced in as many as five or six U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts to begin as soon as March. The economic data, however, hasn't cooperated. Inflation has actually risen somewhat in the first quarter of the year and job growth has remained robust.

March has obviously come and gone with no rate cut and traders ahead of today's numbers had moved expectations of the first rate cut to June or July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A total of just three rate cuts are expected for the full year and even that could be too much.

Speaking yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the possibility of no rate cuts at all in 2024. His remarks prompted a sharp reversal in stocks, with the major averages closing down more than 1%. Just following today's numbers, swaps trading indicated expectations for the first rate cut had moved out to September.

Checking other report details, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.5%, suggesting sizable numbers of people returning to the workforce. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March, in line with expectations and up from 0.2% in February. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose an in line 4.1%, down from 4.3% in February.

The United States has just emerged from the longest government shutdown in its history, a 43-day halt that effectively froze core federal operations. As a result, critical economic indicators—including inflation and unemployment—were not released on schedule. Yet even with the government now reopened, several of these datasets are at risk of never being published.
Kevin Hassett, Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump, confirmed that October’s unemployment rate will not be released, marking the first time in 77 years that the figure has been withheld. Other White House officials acknowledged that major October datasets on employment and inflation may have “disappeared into a data black hole” due to the prolonged disruption in federal data collection.
Uncertainty also surrounds the October CPI print, with officials unable to confirm whether the inflation report can be reconstructed or published at all.
Economists warn that the absence—or partial loss—of these datasets could impair policy-making, distort market expectations, and significantly challenge analysts’ ability to accurately assess post-shutdown economic conditions. Missing data at this scale introduces a rare and material blind spot for both markets and policymakers.
The probability of a December rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve is narrowing, with labor-market and inflation data typically serving as the Fed’s most decisive inputs. The failure to publish these indicators risks creating an “information crisis”, complicating the Fed’s ability to anchor forward guidance and increasing uncertainty around its next policy move.
$MET #Nonfarm #Fed

BTC BANK

The week from 06-12/01/2025 is expected to be one of the most volatile weeks for the cryptocurrency market due to a series of important economic events in the United States. This information could significantly impact market sentiment and the direction of Bitcoin as well as other altcoins.
Important Economic Events to Watch
ISM Services PMI (06/01):
This report reflects the health of the US services sector. A number that exceeds expectations could strengthen the USD, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley recently argued that the long-standing “four-year crypto cycle” no longer reflects the structure of today’s market.
According to Horsley, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs—combined with a significantly evolved regulatory landscape—has fundamentally altered market participant behavior. As a result, the classic cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving events is losing relevance.
ETF-driven capital flows are reshaping market dynamics: these vehicles have introduced an entirely new class of investors whose incentives and trading patterns differ sharply from the retail-driven cycles of previous decades. Such flows have made the market more institutional in nature and far less predictable based solely on the reduction of supply from halvings.
Horsley further noted that although the market may have already entered a corrective phase, crypto now appears to be on the verge of emerging from that downturn. He emphasized that the overall environment for allocating capital into digital assets “has never been stronger,” supported by improved regulatory clarity, robust institutional demand, and a more mature market structure.
From an investment perspective, this view underscores a broader structural shift: crypto is transitioning into a fully institutional asset class, where traditional cycle-based models may no longer be sufficient to capture the market’s behavior.
#Nonfarm #Fed
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The prolonged “crypto winter” may continue, as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have weakened.
The last time the Fed lowered interest rates was on October 29, 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to a 3.75%–4.00% range.
At present, two opposing forces are shaping market sentiment on the Fed’s next move:
On one hand, markets and major research institutions — including Goldman Sachs — continue to anticipate another rate cut in December, citing slowing job growth and rising economic risks.
On the other hand, several Fed officials have voiced concern that inflation remains stubborn, while economic data reliability has been compromised by the recent government shutdown. As a result, many policymakers prefer to “wait and see” rather than act prematurely.
Following the 43-day government shutdown, the U.S. government has resumed full operations, allowing federal agencies to restart normal data collection. Upcoming labor market and inflation data releases will therefore play a decisive role in shaping the Fed’s next policy decision.
$MET #Nonfarm