polymarket_news

Um$XRP a notable transaction went down at the Polymarket prediction event for the UFC 328 flyweight championship, with one account placing a hefty bet on Tatsuro Taira. This highlights the increasing engagement in crypto-based prediction markets for real-world events.

https://share.google/H3fD6aI050OpA4XQR

On Polymarket, the probabilities of Jesus' return by 2026 have doubled since January, rising from about 1.8% to 4%.
Results: this unusual contract shows a performance of +120%, outperforming BTC, which is down 18% since the beginning of the year.
Why is this happening?
• Predictive markets are low liquidity; a few purchases are enough to significantly move the probabilities, somewhat like low-cap cryptocurrencies.
• The contract is mainly seen as a meme, not as a serious forecast.

Polymarket Eyes Chain Migration – Improving Scalability and Efficiency
Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is considering migrating its operations to a new blockchain. As DeFi and prediction markets grow, scalability, cost, and transaction speed become critical factors for mass adoption.
Polymarket’s potential chain migration could enhance user experience by reducing fees and improving throughput. High transaction costs and slow settlement times have previously hindered user growth, especially compared to centralized platforms.
If successful, this move could set a precedent for other prediction markets and DeFi platforms. A faster, cheaper blockchain could attract more traders and institutional participants, boosting liquidity and market efficiency.
That said, chain migrations carry technical risks. Polymarket will need to ensure smooth integration, maintain security, and preserve user trust during the transition. If these hurdles are overcome, it may become a benchmark for future DeFi scalability.
📊 Affected Coins (Fundamental Impact):
entity["cryptocurrency","Polymarket","prediction market token"]
entity["cryptocurrency","Ethereum","blockchain platform"]
entity["cryptocurrency","Polygon","scaling solution"]
#Polymarket_News $ETH #Polygon

The volume of bets in the corresponding forecast has already exceeded $25 million
The volume of cryptocurrency bets on Polymarket's prediction market “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” exceeded $25 million. Traders are placing bets with three forecast dates: before March 31, before June 30, and before December 31.
At the end of March, Polymarket users estimated the chances of a change of power in Iran at 20%, with bets totaling $13.7 million. The probability at the end of June is 42%, with $5 million in bets. By the end of the year, according to participants, the chances are higher - 51%, with bets totaling $7 million.
Predictions are also open for other events related to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran have already collected $4.8 million. As of today, March 2, the probability of such an event is estimated at 1%, on March 6 - at 8%, by the end of the month - at 44%, and by May - at 66%.
$4.7 million has been placed on the prediction “Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?” Participants believe that there is a 38% chance that this will happen by the end of March. The chances are higher by June 30 - 50% - and 53% by the end of the year.
Polymarket participants are also betting on the possible resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The amount of bets in the pool “Will Netanyahu resign by the end of 2026?” is $400,000, with users estimating the chances at 41%.
Polymarket's competitor, the Kalshi platform, accepted bets on the resignation of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. After his death, the platform closed these predictions, promising to compensate users for losses associated with the closure of this market. The head of the service, Tareq Mansour, said that profiting from a person's death is unacceptable, and the prediction implied a change in the country's leadership through resignation or transfer of power.
The same markets exist on Polymarket, with different closing dates. The website shows that they are closed with a “yes” outcome, but are in “disputed” status .
In mid-February, it became known that several people in Israel had been arrested during an investigation into the use of military information for betting on Polymarket. According to the investigation, the players placed bets on the timing of military operations based on classified information to which they had access during their service.
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