๐ผ I Calculated Tomorrow's CPI Before the Releaseโฆ and the Numbers Look Interesting (Hope This Helps)
$XAG $AIN
$XRP Every month same story.
CPI dropsโฆ and influencers start posting screenshots of the number. No logic, no breakdown. Just โbullishโ or โbearishโ and they disappear.
So meow tried something different โ look at the February data first and estimate where CPI could land before the release.
๐ February macro signals:
โ Jobs change: around -90k
โ Unemployment: ~4.4%
โ Wage growth: ~3.7โ3.8%
โ Energy prices: slightly higher in Feb
โ Shelter / rent inflation: cooling slowly
โ Food prices: mostly stable
โ Services inflation: still sticky
๐ Combining these using CPI basket weights gives roughly:
โ Estimated CPI YoY: ~2.3% โ 2.4%
โ Estimated CPI MoM: ~~0.28โ0.32%
โ Estimated Core CPI: around ~2.5%
๐ Analyst expectations:
โ CPI YoY: ~2.4%
โ CPI MoM: ~0.3%
โ Core CPI: ~2.5%
So the estimate from February data lands very close to analyst consensus.
๐ For rate cuts the Fed usually wants:
โ CPI closer to ~2.2โ2.3%
โ Wage growth below ~3.5%
Right now inflation stable but wages still a bit high, so immediate rate cuts unlikely.
๐ Tomorrow's reaction depends on the surprise:
โ โค2.3% CPI โ bullish
โ ~2.4% โ small relief move
โ โฅ2.5% โ short-term bearish
If CPI lands near ~2.3โ2.4%, market may see stable inflation + weaker economy, which can support risk assets short term.
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