• If the data stabilizes (moderate inflation + strong labor market): the Fed is likely to continue waiting and then decide to cut interest rates, which may be signaled at the end of July meeting.
• If inflation advances due to tariffs: any cut may be delayed until fall or later, keeping monetary policy more restrictive.
• Political impact: increasing pressure from President Trump - who is demanding a "substantial and immediate" cut - adds an additional dimension to the challenge of the bank's independence(), but Powell seems determined to maintain that independence.
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🗓️ Next step
• Next FOMC meeting: July 29–30, followed by a press conference to release forecasts (Brown Book and official data) .
• Pre-meeting events:
• Jobs report (July 5).
• June inflation data (late July).
• Release of the "Beige Book" mid-July (July 16 according to the schedule)  .
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📌 Summary
• The Fed so far adopts a "wait-and-see" stance.
• Powell does not rule out a rate cut but is depending on upcoming data.
• Division within the committee: some want a significant cut, while others are cautious due to inflation concerns.
• The market has started adjusting its expectations, but the likelihood of a cut in July remains limited
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