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33% FED RATE HIKE PROBABILITY — $BTC CAUGHT IN THE MACRO CROSSFIRE

$BTC

Markets now price a 33% probability the Federal Reserve raises rates before January 2027. The odds of any rate cut this year: exactly 0%. The driver is rising inflation from a global energy shock.

In that scenario, equities and crypto absorb the first wave of selling. There's no soft landing narrative here — the exit only comes through a broader global recession.

But the counter-thesis is live. Powell departs in May. Trump has explicitly called for aggressive rate cuts under his incoming Fed chair, one expected to align more closely with White House direction.

Two conflicting macro forces now define $BTC 's trajectory: tight monetary policy from the current Fed vs. political pressure for easing starting as early as Q3.

Verdict: Range-bound with event risk in both directions. Watch the Powell succession.

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