signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been falling non-stop since its October All Time High and all the signs continue to be there that we have already entered the new Bear Cycle.
We've been sharing extensive analyses with you since September on the markers of the Bear Cycle and the latest indicator that adds to the data set is the STOCH on the 3W time-frame.
As you can see, it has entered a level where all previous three Bear Cycles completed roughly their 1st Phase and rebounded on a dead-cat-bounce. On average it i roughly after every three 3W candles that this happens, this time it was after two, the previous two Bear Cycles after three and the one before (longest) after six.
Also this is the fastest it's reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) on a Bear Cycle correction and most likely it will be the same for its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA100 (green trend-line).
This is another sign that shows how every Cycle gets less and less aggressive. The first Bear Cycle dropped by roughly -94%, the second by -87%, the third by -84% and the fourth (last) by 77%. This decelerating rate reveals BTC's asymptotic behavior as more and more mass adoption kicks in with every passing Cycle. As the market stabilizes, becomes larger and more widespread, the volatility becomes lower and lower. This is a sign of maturity.
So what does this potentially mean for us and this Bear Cycle? Well that the drop will most likely be contained at -70% maximum (-7% less than the previous Cycle), a rate that may be as low as -60% (just after contacting the 3W MA100) if ETF buying interest returns or other fundamental catalysts (bitcoin treasuries etc?) accelerate adoption. So this potential range translates into a possible buy zone of $50000 - $38000 towards the end of 2026 but that's a topic we've analyzed extensively on other studies.
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