Bitcoin has an 88% chance of ending the year on a high
Bitcoin is going through a turbulent period, but the figures could tell a very different story. Economist Timothy Peterson has just published an analysis that is attracting attention: according to him, the probability that Bitcoin will end the year above its current level is 88%. This is enough to rekindle hope or fuel the debate.
In brief
Economist Timothy Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being higher in December than today is 88%.
In the last 24 months, 50% have recorded positive returns for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000, 25% below its level at the beginning of 2025.
Analysts remain divided: some predict an imminent rebound, while others predict a low point in October 2026.
50% of the last 24 months have been positive for Bitcoin
This Saturday, Timothy Peterson shared an analysis that quickly generated a lot of excitement. The economist, specialized in digital assets, published on X an indicator he closely follows: the number of positive months recorded by Bitcoin in a consecutive period of 24 months.
His observation is clear. In the last two years, exactly half of the months have shown gains for Bitcoin. However, this seemingly insignificant proportion sends a strong signal: according to his model, it implies "an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be up in ten months", that is, around December 22, 2026.
The figures support this interpretation. In 2025, BTC closed in positive territory in January, April, May, June, July, and September, six out of the twelve months. The remaining six months resulted in losses. An uneven performance, for sure, but enough to surpass the threshold that Peterson considers the trigger for his bullish signal.
$BTC $ETH $XRP #Timothy