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As President Donald Trump searches for a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Washington and Tehran appear to be engaged in a standard negotiation.
Washington tends to view negotiations with Iran through the lens of power. Tehran views them through the lens of possession.
Washington aims to force Iran to succumb to demands through economic pressure and sanctions. Tehran aims to force the US to succumb after acquiring something valuable and refusing to give it back.
Twice over the last decade, I was involved in protracted negotiations with Iran for the release of American hostages held in Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison.
Hostage negotiations collapse power advantages. Iran understands this. It’s why Tehran, since the 1979 revolution, has repeatedly used hostages as bargaining chips with the US.
As a diplomat representing the most powerful country in the world, there was nothing in my hand to overcome the imbalance at the table. My counterparts possessed something we wanted (people), and they would hold onto it until we were prepared to pay a sufficient price.
Short of a hostage rescue operation, there was nothing Washington could do outside of paying an agreed price.
Time favored the Iranians. They felt little urgency. Their strategy was to wait as hostages suffered and pressure mounted on Washington to secure their freedom.
Seek to outlast the macro pressure and rising gasoline prices as economic pain compounds inside Tehran to some distant and uncertain breaking point.
Pay the up-front cost with billions to Iran in exchange for a return to status quo before the war — a humiliating retreat for Trump given the stated objectives at the outset.
Seek to control the strait militarily and renew major operations inside Iran, with risk that Tehran then seeks to expand the war to other fronts.
This is the dilemma of negotiating with a party that possesses what you want back.
Unless and until the leverage changes, Iran will not surrender it cheaply — and talks will remain as today: deadlocked.
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In other words, anything below $80,000 would be seen as a corrective bounce within the broader bear market that began last year. Only a move beyond that would signal the beginning of a new advance.
Technically, a recovery up to $68K could be viewed as a rebound from the downward momentum seen between 11 May and 5 June," said Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief analyst at FxPro, hinting at a lower price level to beat for the bulls.
A rally even to these levels hinges on ETF flows and macro factors. The 11 spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have processed redemptions over $5 billion in the past four weeks. On Monday, investors yanked another $91 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
These outflows need to meaningfully reverse for the bitcoin price to gain upward momentum. In addition, Wednesday's U.S. inflation data may have to come in softer than expected, easing concerns the Fed will raise interest rates. The data is expected to show the cost of living topped 4% in May, well above the Fed's 2% goal.
The constructive path is conditional: inflation softens, Treasury yields stabilize, AI equities stop de-risking, BTC/ETH ETF outflows slow, and the market reclaims the key technical levels. Until then, the conclusion is deliberately simple: below the reclaim, there is no regime shift," Hex Trust said. Stay alert!
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Alpenglow upgrade update, Ripple on North Korea hacking threat, Cloudflare on AI agents and web economics
Ripple is now sharing its internal threat intelligence on North Korean hackers with the crypto industry, the company said, in a move that reframes how the sector is responding to a shift in DPRK attack methodology. The Drift hack was not a hack in the way most people think of one. Nobody found a bug or exploited a smart contract. North Korean operatives spent months befriending Drift's contributors, slipped malware onto their machines, and walked off with the keys. By the time the $285 million moved, every system that was supposed to catch a hack had nothing to flag. That is the version of events Ripple and Crypto ISAC, the crypto industry's threat-sharing group, laid out Monday alongside news that Ripple is now sharing its internal data on North Korean threat actors with the rest of the sector. The 2022-24 wave of more DeFi hacks was centred on exploiting code, with attackers finding smart contract vulnerabilities and draining protocols in minutes. But as security gets tighter, the modus operandi shifts from technology to people. Rogue operatives apply for jobs at crypto firms, pass background checks, show up on Zoom calls and build trust for months. Then they deploy attacks that no traditional security tool was built to catch, because the attacker is already inside. Ripple is now feeding Crypto ISAC the kind of profile data that makes that pattern legible across companies.
For decades, the web ran on a simple bargain: Publishers and businesses made information freely accessible, search engines and other crawlers indexed it, and those services sent human traffic back. Sites could then monetize that traffic through ads, subscriptions or commerce. But that's all changing fast, Cloudflare Chief Strategy Officer Stephanie Cohen said at CoinDesk’s Consensus conference in Miami. With the rise of AI agents, software can scrape a webpage, summarize content and keep the source user inside a chatbot or automated workflow instead of sending a person back to the original site. Cohen said that shift is breaking the internet’s old business model, with non-human traffic now exceeding human engagement. Cloudflare’s proposed answer is to give websites more control over automated traffic: identify the bots, verify who they are, understand what they intend to do and decide whether to allow, block or charge them. Cohen pointed to x402, an open payments protocol built around the HTTP 402 “Payment Required” status code, as one piece of that stack
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