๐ฅ WALLER AT THE FED? WILL TRUMPโS RATE-CUT DREAM HIT A WALL ๐ฅ
Markets are heating up ๐ as Waller is floated as the next Federal Reserve Chair โ seen as a rules-oriented, politically acceptable pick who appears friendly to rate cuts ๐. But donโt get carried away just yet.
โ ๏ธ Reality check
The Fed Chair isnโt all-powerful. The FOMCโs one-person-one-vote system, legal independence, and market credibility mean Waller canโt slash rates on his own, no matter who appoints him.
๐งฉ Why Waller looks like the โoptimalโ choice:
โข Signals openness to rate cuts ๐๏ธ
โข Maintains credibility via balance sheet reduction โ๏ธ
โข Politically smoother confirmation path ๐๏ธ
๐ But the macro doesnโt lie
Hawkish and centrist members still dominate the FOMC. Inflation remains sticky, and 2026 growth expectations donโt justify aggressive easing. Even with Waller steering expectations, he likely secures only a few votes.
๐ Best case: slow, symbolic rate cuts
๐ More likely: balance sheet reduction first
๐ Trumpโs dream of sub-1% rates? Very unlikely ๐ซ
๐ญ Bottom line
This looks more like a White House political move than a real monetary pivot. A short honeymoon is possible โ but medium-term friction feels inevitable.
So what do you think?
๐ Will Waller cut rates firstโฆ or shrink the balance sheet first?
ๅ
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