The market's reaction to the Iran war is already visible. From Feb 28 (war escalation):
Energy Commodities: First to Move
• WTI Oil: +27%
• Brent: +18%
• Natural Gas: +6%
• Corn: +4%
Meanwhile:
• Gold: −0.6%
• Copper: −2.2%
• Silver: −6%
• Platinum: −7%
Takeaway: Surprisingly, real geopolitical crises move energy first, not gold.
Why? Wars and financial crises do not start...
They start as supply chain crises.
No oil → trucks stop
No gas → factories shut down
Example: 2022 European energy crisis → Gas supply collapsed, not gold, energy spiked.