Why did the technical traders miss out on gold??
If you didn't enter the market 10 years ago, you would have missed it~
I don't know about other technical traders, whether they missed gold this round, especially those following CTA strategies, I think most of them probably missed it badly!
I am one of those who missed it badly, but when I did historical backtesting, I found points that made sense to me (if only there were a shuttle, how great would that be, NM)
Through historical backtesting, assuming you were trading gold on a weekly chart, you might have endured a long 20+ years of fluctuations, from 1996 to 2016, your net value might not even break 1.000. The weekly chart is like that, and the daily chart is even harder, unless you held onto it since 1996, it's like when someone tells you that you should have held onto Bitcoin since 2013.
So what is the only effective strategy? It's the monthly chart!
Assuming you entered the market in November 1996, buying gold spot at a price of 373, and held onto it until April 2013, selling at a price of 1239, you would have achieved a 425% return. Then comes the decline, fluctuations, and entering a consolidation period. You would find that 3 years later, in February 2016, the market would show some trend illusions, so from February 2016, you would suffer losses until September 2022, lasting 8 years. Do you think you could endure 8 years of fluctuations?? I think such people are rare.
But if you really immersed yourself in this gold trading, chances are in March 2023, you would enter the market at a point of 1969.31, then set a stop loss at 1809.425, and let the bullets fly wildly. Six months later, you would be lucky enough to encounter fortune, and in October 2023, gold would pull back to 1810.465, just 1.040 away from hitting the stop loss!!! So if you held onto your position, gold would be soaring. By January 28, 2026, with an intraday price of 5234 yuan, your floating profit would reach 165.88%. If you started from 1996, your net value would have reached 12.594. This is the historical review, ups and downs!
However, the reality is that most of us see and truly feel the soaring gold in 2024, or even 2025. As a technical trader, seeing that nearly 90ยฐ parabolic curve starting from 2023, how could you convince yourself to enter the market?? In the end, I couldn't persuade myself, sigh~ so I missed it.
#้ป้ #XAU #Xauusdgold