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Bitcoin pressured by Fed uncertainty, oil, and AI slowdown
Enflux points to oil-driven inflation as the main constraint, while questions around AI demand could reshape miner selling in the months ahead.
By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Omkar Godbole
Apr 28, 2026, 9:42 a.m.
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What to know:
Bitcoin is trading about 3% lower near $77,000 as investors hold back ahead of a pivotal week of U.S. economic data and a Federal Reserve rate decision.Elevated oil prices above $100 a barrel are complicating the inflation outlook, diminishing prospects for near-term Fed rate cuts and keeping bitcoin stuck below key technical resistance around $80,700.A potential slowdown in AI demand, highlighted by OpenAI missing revenue targets, could eventually curb bitcoin miner selling but adds another layer of uncertainty to an already conflicted macro backdrop.
Bitcoin BTC$76,969.49 is down 3% in Asian morning trading, holding near $77,000 as markets brace for a week packed with macro catalysts. The move appears driven more by caution than a shift in sentiment.
In a note to CoinDesk, Singapore-based Enflux, a market maker, said traders are reluctant to push bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision and a cluster of data releases later in the week, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. Together, those prints will shape expectations for when, or if, the Fed can begin cutting rates in the second half of the year.
For now, the biggest constraint is oil. Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and raising the bar for a dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
According to Enflux, the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not arrive quickly enough to influence near-term policy. That combination has effectively priced out rate cuts for June (Polymarket bettors give a 95% chance of 'no change') and created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
In that environment, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels. The cryptocurrency is trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often viewed as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction.
Moving decisively above it would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation will prove temporary. Absent that, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday's data releases, with a sharper move more likely tied to the macro prints than to the Fed statement itself.
Looking beyond this week, a less visible force may also be shaping bitcoin's next moves. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while also selling portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers – a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could, in theory, slow selling.
When demand for compute is strong, miners have both the incentive and the financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capex and service debt.
But if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with those expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease that miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply.
The problem is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks, because of weaker tech and risk appetite, would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later.
In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point. The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price.
For now, that keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.
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22 hours ago$BTC
$BTC $BTC #Bitcion

Bitcoin is gonna be bullish and their art coin because of the Trump‘s and the pentagon statements and nearly we have meetings which can control the ceasefire so maybe there is a chance for the bitcoin to be bullish and other crypto #bitcion

#Bitcoin – What’s Next?

The Big Report: Everything You Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: BTC just did something major, and most people still haven’t realized it. I haven’t seen a single person mention it. Probably because they haven’t figured it out yet. Not even one chart pointing out this massive bullish event. It’s right in front of our eyes, and yet the market fails to see it.

Bitcoin just broke through the diagonal resistance on the MONTHLY chart. It was rejected in November, December 2024, January, and February 2025, four months in a row, with every single monthly close sitting just under that key resistance.

This month, we saw a clean breakout and clean retest + explosive bullish impulse forming. The resistance I’m talking about is the one that marked the 2021 all-time high.

BTC just broke above it, retested it, and is now making it clear, the next leg up is loading.

This chart is extremely bullish and I’m calling it now: your entire X feed will be filled with this chart soon.

On top of this bullish formation you have even more bullish news:

TRUMP TRADE DEAL
One of the few elements still holding back BTC and the broader stock market from moving even higher are tariffs.

Many assume the market no longer cares, that’s incorrect. Its partially priced in, but tariffs continue to suppress momentum. That suppression just broke Today, as Trump confirmed that the U.S. has officially reached a trade deal with Europe. The agreement includes:

– $750 billion in U.S. energy exports
– $600 billion in EU investments into the U.S.
– $150 billion in EU purchases of U.S. energy

This is one of the largest and most bullish trade agreements since the legendary 2016 trade deal!

U.S. stock markets are expected to open sharply higher and Bitcoin will strongly follow.

This is very bullish for the mid and long term as there is no longer fear due to a tarrif war between countries, especially and most importantly between the US and Europe.

RECENT WHALE MOVEMENTS
Earlier this week, we saw a sell-off triggered by movements from Galaxy Digital wallets. Markets panicked, and BTC dropped to $114,500. That panic was completely unjustified. Here’s why: ETF inflows continue to outpace daily sell volume and have done so for months. Spot ETFs are absorbing more BTC than is being mined. BlackRock is acting like a vacuum, pulling Bitcoin off the market.

What some whale wallet movements are doing is irrelevant when the real accumulation engine is in full force and thousands of other whales have not touched their BTC yet. No reason to panic at all!

M2 MONEY SUPPLY
Let’s get to the real macro engine: M2 money supply. In 2020, M2 expanded 25% due to COVID panic. Bitcoin responded with an 800% rally. Since the start of 2025, M2 is up +2.3%, and that’s during a period still labeled “quantitative tightening.” In other words, rates are high, the Fed is not cutting, but they are still printing, and forced to do so. This should not be happening under tightening, and yet it is. When real easing begins, printing will become more agressive. What you’re seeing now is just the start, and it has not even started yet.

There’s no fixed rule like “BTC rises X% per M2 gain,” but historical data shows a rough correlation of 30–35% BTC upside per 1% M2 increase. The MOST AGRESSIVE printing this year happened between May and June 2025, with a monthly increase of +0.63%, the largest spike so far. For context, previous months like March → April and April → May showed smaller increases. Combine that with BTC’s typical lag to M2, around 60 to 90 days, and it’s simple: June’s print sets up a 15–17.5% BTC rally in the coming weeks.

This brings us directly into the $130,000+ target zone. This is my first serious target since 2022!
#bitcion #update

Introduction:
In the world of cryptocurrency, two giants dominate the conversation: Bitcoin and Ethereum. One is known as “Digital Gold,” while the other is called the “World Computer.” Their foundations are different, their purposes distinct — yet both have changed the global financial landscape.
But the question remains: Which one is better?
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🔗 Core Differences
Aspect Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH)
Launched 2009 – Satoshi Nakamoto 2015 – Vitalik Buterin
Purpose Digital money, secure transactions Smart contracts, decentralized apps
Supply Limited (21 million) Unlimited, but regulated
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🧠 Technology & Philosophy
Bitcoin’s core goal is to be a decentralized currency — a store of value beyond the control of banks and governments. Its success lies in simplicity and security.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is not just a currency. It's a platform where developers build decentralized apps (DApps), smart contracts, NFTs, and more — powering the next generation of the internet (Web3).
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⚔️ Ethereum's New Weapon – "Proof of Stake"
While Bitcoin still uses Proof of Work (energy-intensive), Ethereum upgraded to Proof of Stake through Ethereum 2.0. This switch brought major improvements in energy efficiency, transaction speed, and scalability.
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📈 Market Performance (As of 2025)
Bitcoin continues to dominate with the highest market cap. It’s seen as a long-term investment and a hedge against inflation.
Ethereum is the engine behind NFTs, DeFi, and Web3 — making it attractive to developers and innovators.
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🤔 Which is Better — BTC or ETH?
It depends on your goals:
Want security and long-term value? → Go for Bitcoin
Interested in innovation, Web3, and future apps? → Choose Ethereum
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💡 Final Thought:
Bitcoin started the revolution. Ethereum gave it a new direction.
One is like digital gold. The other? A smartphone packed with possibilities.
In the end, perhaps the smartest move is not choosing one — but balancing both.
#Bitcion #Ethereum #ProjectCrypto
$BTC
$ETH