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Using FIL as an example: The【Moving Average Strategy】that crosses bull and bear markets is no longer just 'faith'! Can it still be held? How to operate to avoid being trapped?
Using FIL as an example: The【Moving Average Strategy】that crosses bull and bear markets is no longer just 'faith'! Can it still be held? How to operate to avoid being trapped?
1: Swing trend, daily level
Buy long above the daily moving average MA25 and sell short below.
The current trend is short.
Step 1: Wait for the daily line to break through MA25 to start buying long, hold online, and sell to switch to short when broken.
Classic examples of past trends:
2: Medium-term trend, weekly level
Step 2: The weekly line needs to break through the MA7 moving average, then break through the MA25, 60 moving averages, etc. It needs to be done step by step.
3: Long-term trend, monthly level
1: Swing trend, daily level
Buy long above the daily moving average MA25 and sell short below.
The current trend is short.
Step 1: Wait for the daily line to break through MA25 to start buying long, hold online, and sell to switch to short when broken.
Classic examples of past trends:
2: Medium-term trend, weekly level
Step 2: The weekly line needs to break through the MA7 moving average, then break through the MA25, 60 moving averages, etc. It needs to be done step by step.
3: Long-term trend, monthly level
Filecoin Hashrate Plunges Off a Cliff, Entering a Death Spiral! FIL Price Will Only Keep Dropping
Filecoin Hashrate Plunges Off a Cliff, Entering a Death Spiral! FIL Price Will Only Keep Dropping, Unless These 4 Turning Points Emerge!
January 23, 2026 – 43-day FIL data: Filecoin network hashrate fell below 19 EiB, down by 1,363 PiB — a historic low! Total number of nodes dropped below 1,000; daily circulating supply increased by 410,000 FIL, with massive hashrate early terminations and pledge releases, more than 10 million FIL flowing into the market, creating enormous selling pressure!
In fact, from October 30, 2025 to December 11, 2025 (41 days): Filecoin network hashrate fell below 20 EiB, down by 1,907 PiB.
That means, over the past 84 days, Filecoin hashrate has decreased by a total of 3,270 PiB, with actual physical storage capacity dropping to only 2.26 EiB.
FIL price remains persistently depressed and is likely to stay low for quite some time, because a large amount of hashrate will continue to expire without renewal, and many providers are proactively terminating sectors to retrieve their pledges. The core reason is that FIL price has fallen below the storage cost threshold (triggering the mining shutdown price). Storage providers are operating at a loss and are forced to shut down hashrate. This leads to continuous hashrate decline → weak ecosystem → no real usage scenarios or pledge demand → more and more tokens flowing into the market → price keeps dropping! A vicious cycle — also known as a death spiral!
(The key driver of the 2020–2022 price surge was the massive FIL pledge demand from cold storage mining, combined with very low circulating supply — supply could not meet demand. Now the situation is exactly the opposite.)
Some people say: Will the on-chain storage FOC launched by Filecoin in 2025, along with other hot storage solutions, increase real usage scenarios and boost FIL demand, ultimately saving the price? In reality, usage is extremely scarce — mostly just splinter groups spun off from Protocol Labs using it internally, or the occasional unknown project. No major Web3 platforms or off-chain large-scale users are adopting it — at least not yet. Indeed, this is one possible breakthrough point (turning point) for saving FIL, but so far there has been no meaningful progress.
Another potential turning point is if the Filecoin Foundation (FF) starts actively managing or pumping the price, or brings in professional market-making teams. However, FF is constrained by all kinds of rules and regulations (claiming U.S. legal restrictions, etc.), stubbornly tying their own hands. They spend tens of millions of dollars every year on various activities, but never really use the money where it matters most. (All this money comes from selling FIL — which means dumping on the market, and every dump causes the price to crash even harder.) As a result, despite spending so much, FIL price keeps falling. This is entirely due to wrong strategic decisions by FF!
A third possible turning point is if super whales / major players step in to accumulate and pump the price. Currently there are 818 million FIL in circulating supply — manipulating it would require enormous capital. Moreover, many holders are just waiting to sell; every pump is quickly followed by a sharp drop, forming inverted V-shaped patterns, which shows extremely heavy selling pressure. The best-case scenario would be FF cooperating with super whales to jointly manage the market. (Insider info: In the past, market-making teams approached Juan Benet asking Protocol Labs to lock up tokens and reduce circulating supply to facilitate a pump, but Juan refused.)
The final and most powerful turning point would be a global storage crisis — widespread destruction or failure of centralized storage systems, forcing everyone to migrate to Filecoin for storage. Otherwise, mature and stable centralized cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud offer perfect after-sales service. Almost no one is willing to take the risk of using Filecoin for storage — it’s hard to use, unreliable, and simply unnecessary. (If Filecoin data doesn’t have sufficient backups and is stored in only one data center, it can still be deleted or lost due to failures — it’s actually pseudo-decentralized storage.)
In summary: Filecoin hashrate is collapsing, massive pledged FIL is flooding the market, circulating float keeps increasing, inflation continues, supply far exceeds demand — price will only keep falling! At least for now, no recovery is in sight — unless at least one of the above turning points actually materializes!
This is an objective analysis of the facts — for reference only!
Wish everyone good luck — once you bet, accept the outcome. No regrets after the die is cast!
#fil $FIL l #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil
January 23, 2026 – 43-day FIL data: Filecoin network hashrate fell below 19 EiB, down by 1,363 PiB — a historic low! Total number of nodes dropped below 1,000; daily circulating supply increased by 410,000 FIL, with massive hashrate early terminations and pledge releases, more than 10 million FIL flowing into the market, creating enormous selling pressure!
In fact, from October 30, 2025 to December 11, 2025 (41 days): Filecoin network hashrate fell below 20 EiB, down by 1,907 PiB.
That means, over the past 84 days, Filecoin hashrate has decreased by a total of 3,270 PiB, with actual physical storage capacity dropping to only 2.26 EiB.
FIL price remains persistently depressed and is likely to stay low for quite some time, because a large amount of hashrate will continue to expire without renewal, and many providers are proactively terminating sectors to retrieve their pledges. The core reason is that FIL price has fallen below the storage cost threshold (triggering the mining shutdown price). Storage providers are operating at a loss and are forced to shut down hashrate. This leads to continuous hashrate decline → weak ecosystem → no real usage scenarios or pledge demand → more and more tokens flowing into the market → price keeps dropping! A vicious cycle — also known as a death spiral!
(The key driver of the 2020–2022 price surge was the massive FIL pledge demand from cold storage mining, combined with very low circulating supply — supply could not meet demand. Now the situation is exactly the opposite.)
Some people say: Will the on-chain storage FOC launched by Filecoin in 2025, along with other hot storage solutions, increase real usage scenarios and boost FIL demand, ultimately saving the price? In reality, usage is extremely scarce — mostly just splinter groups spun off from Protocol Labs using it internally, or the occasional unknown project. No major Web3 platforms or off-chain large-scale users are adopting it — at least not yet. Indeed, this is one possible breakthrough point (turning point) for saving FIL, but so far there has been no meaningful progress.
Another potential turning point is if the Filecoin Foundation (FF) starts actively managing or pumping the price, or brings in professional market-making teams. However, FF is constrained by all kinds of rules and regulations (claiming U.S. legal restrictions, etc.), stubbornly tying their own hands. They spend tens of millions of dollars every year on various activities, but never really use the money where it matters most. (All this money comes from selling FIL — which means dumping on the market, and every dump causes the price to crash even harder.) As a result, despite spending so much, FIL price keeps falling. This is entirely due to wrong strategic decisions by FF!
A third possible turning point is if super whales / major players step in to accumulate and pump the price. Currently there are 818 million FIL in circulating supply — manipulating it would require enormous capital. Moreover, many holders are just waiting to sell; every pump is quickly followed by a sharp drop, forming inverted V-shaped patterns, which shows extremely heavy selling pressure. The best-case scenario would be FF cooperating with super whales to jointly manage the market. (Insider info: In the past, market-making teams approached Juan Benet asking Protocol Labs to lock up tokens and reduce circulating supply to facilitate a pump, but Juan refused.)
The final and most powerful turning point would be a global storage crisis — widespread destruction or failure of centralized storage systems, forcing everyone to migrate to Filecoin for storage. Otherwise, mature and stable centralized cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud offer perfect after-sales service. Almost no one is willing to take the risk of using Filecoin for storage — it’s hard to use, unreliable, and simply unnecessary. (If Filecoin data doesn’t have sufficient backups and is stored in only one data center, it can still be deleted or lost due to failures — it’s actually pseudo-decentralized storage.)
In summary: Filecoin hashrate is collapsing, massive pledged FIL is flooding the market, circulating float keeps increasing, inflation continues, supply far exceeds demand — price will only keep falling! At least for now, no recovery is in sight — unless at least one of the above turning points actually materializes!
This is an objective analysis of the facts — for reference only!
Wish everyone good luck — once you bet, accept the outcome. No regrets after the die is cast!
#fil $FIL l #Filecoin n filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil
Filecoin's computing power has plummeted, entering a death spiral! The FIL price will only continue to drop, unless the following four turning points occur!
Filecoin's computing power has plummeted, entering a death spiral! The FIL price will only continue to drop, unless the following four turning points occur!
On January 23, 2026, FIL data for 43 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 19EiB, a decrease of 1363PiB, setting a historical low! The total number of nodes fell below 1,000; the circulation increased by 410,000 per day, with a large amount of computing power prematurely terminating sector releases, over 10 million FIL flowing into the market, causing selling pressure!
In fact, from October 30, 2025, to December 11, 2025, during the 41 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 20EiB, a decrease of 1907PiB.
In other words, over the past 84 days, Filecoin's computing power has decreased by 3270PiB, and the actual physical storage space has reduced to 2.26EiB.
On January 23, 2026, FIL data for 43 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 19EiB, a decrease of 1363PiB, setting a historical low! The total number of nodes fell below 1,000; the circulation increased by 410,000 per day, with a large amount of computing power prematurely terminating sector releases, over 10 million FIL flowing into the market, causing selling pressure!
In fact, from October 30, 2025, to December 11, 2025, during the 41 days: Filecoin's total network computing power fell below 20EiB, a decrease of 1907PiB.
In other words, over the past 84 days, Filecoin's computing power has decreased by 3270PiB, and the actual physical storage space has reduced to 2.26EiB.
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October 27 FIL 5-day data: computing power decreased to 23.113 EiB; physical space decreased to 4.7E; DC computing power 20.4E; total circulation 649 million
October 27 FIL 5-day data: computing power decreased to 23.113 EiB; physical space decreased to 4.7E; DC computing power 20.4E; total circulation 649 million
October 27: The following data is for 5 days
Filecoin statistics show the total effective computing power of the network is 23.113 EiB (currently the highest is 25.112 EiB, date is February 17, 2024)
From the last time, from October 22 at 18:01 to October 27 at 18:01, in the past 5 days, the total network power decreased by 0.092 EiB (94.208 PiB, average daily decrease of 18.8416 PiB) (currently the highest single day increase is 111 PiB, the highest single day decrease is 163.84 PiB);
The pledge decreased by 431359 FIL in 5 days (average daily decrease of 86272 FIL; currently the total pledge amount is at its highest: 176121944 FIL, date is February 17, 2024);
October 27: The following data is for 5 days
Filecoin statistics show the total effective computing power of the network is 23.113 EiB (currently the highest is 25.112 EiB, date is February 17, 2024)
From the last time, from October 22 at 18:01 to October 27 at 18:01, in the past 5 days, the total network power decreased by 0.092 EiB (94.208 PiB, average daily decrease of 18.8416 PiB) (currently the highest single day increase is 111 PiB, the highest single day decrease is 163.84 PiB);
The pledge decreased by 431359 FIL in 5 days (average daily decrease of 86272 FIL; currently the total pledge amount is at its highest: 176121944 FIL, date is February 17, 2024);
November 4 FIL 7-day data: hashing power rebounded to 23.179EiB; total release 841.16 million; total circulation 649 million; total destruction 40.1 million.
November 4 FIL 7-day data: hashing power rebounded to 23.179EiB; total release 841.16 million; total circulation 649 million; total destruction 40.1 million.
November 4: The following data is from 7 days.
Filecoin statistics show the total effective hashing power is 23.179EiB (recently peaked at 23.205EiB, currently decreased from the highest to the lowest of 22.489EiB, time is on July 19, 2024; currently the highest is 25.112EiB, time is on February 17, 2024).
From October 27th at 18:01 to November 4th at 18:01, the total network hashing power increased by 0.066EIB (67.584PiB, averaging a daily decrease of 9.7PiB) in the past 7 days; the maximum daily increase is currently 111PiB, and the maximum daily decrease is 163.84PiB.
November 4: The following data is from 7 days.
Filecoin statistics show the total effective hashing power is 23.179EiB (recently peaked at 23.205EiB, currently decreased from the highest to the lowest of 22.489EiB, time is on July 19, 2024; currently the highest is 25.112EiB, time is on February 17, 2024).
From October 27th at 18:01 to November 4th at 18:01, the total network hashing power increased by 0.066EIB (67.584PiB, averaging a daily decrease of 9.7PiB) in the past 7 days; the maximum daily increase is currently 111PiB, and the maximum daily decrease is 163.84PiB.
FIL 1-day data on November 6: number of addresses exceeds 3.24 million; total release of 842 million; total circulation of 652 million; total destruction of 40 million; 2,047 nodes; WK output of 95,000
November 6: The following data is for 1 day
Filecoin statistics show that the effective computing power of the entire network is 23.13EiB (recently rebounded to 23.205EiB, and the current decline from the highest to the lowest is 22.489EiB, on July 19, 2024; the highest historical peak of the entire network is 25.112EiB, on February 17, 2024)
From 18:01 on November 5 to 18:01 on November 6, the total network computing power decreased by 0.034EIB (34.816PiB, an average daily decrease of 34.816PiB) in the past day (the current maximum daily computing power increase is 111PiB, and the maximum daily decrease is 163.84PiB);
The pledged amount decreased by 97,619FIL in one day (an average daily decrease of 98,000 FIL; the current minimum pledged amount is 149,259,804FIL ; The maximum is: 176121944FIL, on February 17, 2024);
The destruction volume increased by 1257FIL in one day (an average of 1257FIL was destroyed every day; the current maximum destruction per day is 87332) to 401.04 million FIL;
The circulation volume (inflation) increased by 377906FIL in one day (an average of 37.8FIL per day; the block reward is 94898FIL, and the current maximum circulation volume is: 652125998);
The reward for a single block decreased to 6.7247FIL (currently the lowest is 6.7247FIL);
Single T income is 0.0039FIL (currently the lowest is 0.0039FIL);
Single T pledge 4.1184FIL (currently the lowest is 4.1184FIL);
Gas is 0.0296FIL (32G sector);
The total number of accounts exceeded 3.24 million, an increase of 781 in 1 day, an average increase of 781 per day;
There are 2047 active storage provider nodes, a decrease of 8 in 1 day, keep working hard!!!
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The total amount released is about: 842.01 million FIL, an increase of 280,000 FIL in 1 day (an average increase of 280,000 FIL per day), a decrease of about 170,000 FIL compared to about 450,000 per day before October 15.
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Filecoin Plus DC real data exceeds 2.05EiB, that is, the total amount is 2099.2PiB (89% of the total network computing power after 10 times the computing power; the current maximum is 2.06EiB, that is, 2109.44), and it has decreased by 0.01EiB in 1 day, that is, 102.4PiB (after 10 times the computing power);
CC data is 2.59EiB (the current minimum is 2.59EiB), and it has decreased by 0.00EiB in 1 day, that is, 00PiB, and the total physical space is 4.64EiB (the current minimum is 2.65EiB), and it has decreased by 0.01EiB in 1 day, that is, 10.24PiB.
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#fil #filecoin #ipfs $FIL
November 6: The following data is for 1 day
Filecoin statistics show that the effective computing power of the entire network is 23.13EiB (recently rebounded to 23.205EiB, and the current decline from the highest to the lowest is 22.489EiB, on July 19, 2024; the highest historical peak of the entire network is 25.112EiB, on February 17, 2024)
From 18:01 on November 5 to 18:01 on November 6, the total network computing power decreased by 0.034EIB (34.816PiB, an average daily decrease of 34.816PiB) in the past day (the current maximum daily computing power increase is 111PiB, and the maximum daily decrease is 163.84PiB);
The pledged amount decreased by 97,619FIL in one day (an average daily decrease of 98,000 FIL; the current minimum pledged amount is 149,259,804FIL ; The maximum is: 176121944FIL, on February 17, 2024);
The destruction volume increased by 1257FIL in one day (an average of 1257FIL was destroyed every day; the current maximum destruction per day is 87332) to 401.04 million FIL;
The circulation volume (inflation) increased by 377906FIL in one day (an average of 37.8FIL per day; the block reward is 94898FIL, and the current maximum circulation volume is: 652125998);
The reward for a single block decreased to 6.7247FIL (currently the lowest is 6.7247FIL);
Single T income is 0.0039FIL (currently the lowest is 0.0039FIL);
Single T pledge 4.1184FIL (currently the lowest is 4.1184FIL);
Gas is 0.0296FIL (32G sector);
The total number of accounts exceeded 3.24 million, an increase of 781 in 1 day, an average increase of 781 per day;
There are 2047 active storage provider nodes, a decrease of 8 in 1 day, keep working hard!!!
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The total amount released is about: 842.01 million FIL, an increase of 280,000 FIL in 1 day (an average increase of 280,000 FIL per day), a decrease of about 170,000 FIL compared to about 450,000 per day before October 15.
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Filecoin Plus DC real data exceeds 2.05EiB, that is, the total amount is 2099.2PiB (89% of the total network computing power after 10 times the computing power; the current maximum is 2.06EiB, that is, 2109.44), and it has decreased by 0.01EiB in 1 day, that is, 102.4PiB (after 10 times the computing power);
CC data is 2.59EiB (the current minimum is 2.59EiB), and it has decreased by 0.00EiB in 1 day, that is, 00PiB, and the total physical space is 4.64EiB (the current minimum is 2.65EiB), and it has decreased by 0.01EiB in 1 day, that is, 10.24PiB.
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#fil #filecoin #ipfs $FIL
Analysis of the reasons for the weak market performance of Filecoin (FIL), is there still hope? Will the 2026 'halving' and the official lock-up 'release' have any impact?
Analysis of the reasons for the weak market performance of Filecoin (FIL), is there still hope? Will the 2026 'halving' and the official lock-up 'release' have any impact?
The poor performance of Filecoin (FIL), especially in a weak market, can be analyzed from multiple aspects such as market, technology, and economics. Below are the classifications and analyses of the main reasons:
1. Weak Market Performance
1. Market Factors
Overall cryptocurrency market sluggishness: The price performance of Filecoin is highly correlated with the overall cryptocurrency market. Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, for example, the CoinDesk 20 index dropped by 2.6%, and mainstream coins like Bitcoin (BTC) performed poorly, making it difficult for Filecoin to stand out on its own.
The poor performance of Filecoin (FIL), especially in a weak market, can be analyzed from multiple aspects such as market, technology, and economics. Below are the classifications and analyses of the main reasons:
1. Weak Market Performance
1. Market Factors
Overall cryptocurrency market sluggishness: The price performance of Filecoin is highly correlated with the overall cryptocurrency market. Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, for example, the CoinDesk 20 index dropped by 2.6%, and mainstream coins like Bitcoin (BTC) performed poorly, making it difficult for Filecoin to stand out on its own.
[Official] Filecoin News 106: Connecting with the Filecoin Communities in China and South Korea! Integrating Filecoin for Verifiable, Scalable AI
[Official] Filecoin News 106: Connecting with the Filecoin Communities in China and South Korea! Integrating Filecoin for Verifiable, Scalable AI
Latest Data:
As of March 24, 2025, FIL Data: Computing Power Returns to 22.641 EiB; Total Circulation Exceeds 700 Million, Total Release 880.24 Million; Addresses Exceed 3.51 Million; Single T Revenue Hits All-Time Low
✨ Highlights ✨
CalibrationNet Upgrade to Network v25 (Teep 🦵) Launches Tomorrow
At 23:00 UTC on March 26, Filecoin's CalibrationNet will upgrade to Network Version 25 (Teep 🦵). This upgrade brings key improvements to network performance and reliability, including a simplified termination fee model for storage providers, enhanced Ethereum compatibility through transient storage in FEVM, and activation of F3 to accelerate transaction finality.
Latest Data:
As of March 24, 2025, FIL Data: Computing Power Returns to 22.641 EiB; Total Circulation Exceeds 700 Million, Total Release 880.24 Million; Addresses Exceed 3.51 Million; Single T Revenue Hits All-Time Low
✨ Highlights ✨
CalibrationNet Upgrade to Network v25 (Teep 🦵) Launches Tomorrow
At 23:00 UTC on March 26, Filecoin's CalibrationNet will upgrade to Network Version 25 (Teep 🦵). This upgrade brings key improvements to network performance and reliability, including a simplified termination fee model for storage providers, enhanced Ethereum compatibility through transient storage in FEVM, and activation of F3 to accelerate transaction finality.
[Official] Filecoin News 109: PDP Hot Storage Launch! USDFC Listing! Filecoin Heads to Toronto for Consensus
[Official] Filecoin News 109: PDP Hot Storage Launch! USDFC Listing! Filecoin Heads to Toronto for Consensus
✨ Highlight ✨
🔥 PDP Launches on Mainnet: Verifiable Hot Storage on Filecoin
With the launch of Proof of Data Ownership (PDP) on Mainnet, Filecoin enters a new era of decentralized storage—unlocking fast, verifiable access to hot data. Unlike traditional cold storage proofs, PDP enables storage providers to cryptographically prove they hold immediately available files without needing to retrieve or unseal them. This upgrade bridges the performance gap between centralized cloud and decentralized storage, supporting use cases like AI training, static web content delivery, and developer environments. With PDP, builders can achieve the speed they need, customers can rest assured their data is ready on demand, and SPs can capitalize on new revenue opportunities. The SPX onboarding program will launch this May to help expand PDP adoption across the network.
✨ Highlight ✨
🔥 PDP Launches on Mainnet: Verifiable Hot Storage on Filecoin
With the launch of Proof of Data Ownership (PDP) on Mainnet, Filecoin enters a new era of decentralized storage—unlocking fast, verifiable access to hot data. Unlike traditional cold storage proofs, PDP enables storage providers to cryptographically prove they hold immediately available files without needing to retrieve or unseal them. This upgrade bridges the performance gap between centralized cloud and decentralized storage, supporting use cases like AI training, static web content delivery, and developer environments. With PDP, builders can achieve the speed they need, customers can rest assured their data is ready on demand, and SPs can capitalize on new revenue opportunities. The SPX onboarding program will launch this May to help expand PDP adoption across the network.
FIL 10-day data on December 17: DC data hit a new high, accounting for 94%; the number of addresses exceeded 3.28 million; the total circulation was 666 million; the total release was 853 million; 4.31EiB
FIL 10-day data on December 17: DC data hit a new high, accounting for 94%; the number of addresses exceeded 3.28 million; the total circulation was 666 million; the total release was 853 million; 4.31EiB
FIL 10-day data on December 17: DC data hit a new high, accounting for 94%; the number of addresses exceeded 3.28 million; the total circulation was 666 million; the total release was 853 million; the total physical space was 4.31EiB
December 17: The following data is for 10 days
Filecoin statistics show that the effective computing power of the entire network is 23.309EiB (the recent peak has risen to 23.357EiB on December 7, 2024; the current peak has fallen to 22.489EiB on July 19, 2024; the highest historical peak of the entire network is 25.112EiB on February 17, 2024)
FIL 10-day data on December 17: DC data hit a new high, accounting for 94%; the number of addresses exceeded 3.28 million; the total circulation was 666 million; the total release was 853 million; the total physical space was 4.31EiB
December 17: The following data is for 10 days
Filecoin statistics show that the effective computing power of the entire network is 23.309EiB (the recent peak has risen to 23.357EiB on December 7, 2024; the current peak has fallen to 22.489EiB on July 19, 2024; the highest historical peak of the entire network is 25.112EiB on February 17, 2024)
April 3, 2025 FIL data: Computing power dropped to 22.479 EiB, physical space (actual storage) 3.58 EiB, hitting a new low; total circulation 706 million; total released 882.97 million; total destroyed 40.417 million; number of addresses exceeds 3.52 million; single T revenue hits a new low! #fil $FIL l #Filecoin filecoin #ipfs ipfs fil depin ai #DePIN
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