#selic
selic
630 views
5 Discussing
Hot
Latest
Dollar at R$ 5, lowest level since 2024. In Brazil, during an election year, this becomes an argument to cut the Selic faster — even with inflation still high.
Will the government use the Central Bank as an electoral tool or let the market run? #brasil #Selic
Will the government use the Central Bank as an electoral tool or let the market run? #brasil #Selic
🇧🇷 FOCUS REPORT — MARKET EXPECTATIONS 📊
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
(Released Monday, Jan 19)
🔻 Inflation (IPCA)
• 2026: 4.02% ⬇️ (from 4.05%)
• 2027: 3.80% ➖
• 2028: 3.50% ➖
• 2029: 3.50% ➖
📈 GDP Growth
• 2026: 1.80% ➖
• 2027: 1.80% ➖
• 2028: 2.00% ➖
• 2029: 2.00% ➖
🏦 Selic Rate (Policy Rate)
• 2026: 12.25% ➖
• 2027: 10.50% ➖
• 2028: 10.00% ⬆️ (from 9.88%)
• 2029: 9.50% ➖
📌 Market curve signal:
• Selic end-2026 priced ~12.81%
• Previous: 12.61%
⚠️ Takeaway:
Inflation expectations ease slightly, growth stays muted, but the rate curve is drifting higher, signaling persistent tightening risk.
#Brazil #Macro #FOCUSReport #Selic #IPCA
🧵 Thread 2: The Brazilian Scenario
Title: 🧵 Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil Amid Global Chaos
1/5 🧵 While the dollar rises worldwide (DXY at 97.88, +0.19%), in Brazil it fell 0.25%, closing at R$ 5,2271. Why?
2/5 🧵 REASON 1 – Positive flow: The Treasury auctioned US$ 4.5 billion in 10 and 30-year bonds last week. The settlement of these securities entered the country today, generating a supply of dollars.
3/5 🧵 REASON 2 – Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil remains attractive to foreign investors. They finance themselves in low-interest currencies and invest here, profiting from the difference.
4/5 🧵 REASON 3 – Adjustments post-holiday: Ash Wednesday had a partial session. The market is adjusting after Carnival.
5/5 🧵 GLOBAL CONTEXT: Despite the relief in the exchange rate, the external scenario remains tense: VIX at 21.20, US-Iran tension, Fed hawkish. The real may have found a breather, but global volatility still sets the pace.
#ThreadsVibes #Dolar #Brasil #carrytrade #selic
Title: 🧵 Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil Amid Global Chaos
1/5 🧵 While the dollar rises worldwide (DXY at 97.88, +0.19%), in Brazil it fell 0.25%, closing at R$ 5,2271. Why?
2/5 🧵 REASON 1 – Positive flow: The Treasury auctioned US$ 4.5 billion in 10 and 30-year bonds last week. The settlement of these securities entered the country today, generating a supply of dollars.
3/5 🧵 REASON 2 – Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil remains attractive to foreign investors. They finance themselves in low-interest currencies and invest here, profiting from the difference.
4/5 🧵 REASON 3 – Adjustments post-holiday: Ash Wednesday had a partial session. The market is adjusting after Carnival.
5/5 🧵 GLOBAL CONTEXT: Despite the relief in the exchange rate, the external scenario remains tense: VIX at 21.20, US-Iran tension, Fed hawkish. The real may have found a breather, but global volatility still sets the pace.
#ThreadsVibes #Dolar #Brasil #carrytrade #selic
The Brazilian Counterpoint
Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil While Rising in the World
On yet another day of geopolitical tension (VIX at 21.20), the dollar rose globally (DXY +0.19%)... but fell in Brazil (-0.25%).
The reasons:
💰 Positive flow: Liquidation of US$ 4.5 billion in Treasury bonds
🏦 Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil attracts foreign capital
📅 Post-holiday adjustments: Ash Wednesday had a partial session
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 133 million and Ethereum, US$ 41.8 million. Solana was the positive exception: +US$ 2.4 million.
#Dolar #Brasil #CarryTrade #selic #ETFs s
Why the Dollar Fell in Brazil While Rising in the World
On yet another day of geopolitical tension (VIX at 21.20), the dollar rose globally (DXY +0.19%)... but fell in Brazil (-0.25%).
The reasons:
💰 Positive flow: Liquidation of US$ 4.5 billion in Treasury bonds
🏦 Carry trade: With Selic at 15%, Brazil attracts foreign capital
📅 Post-holiday adjustments: Ash Wednesday had a partial session
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs lost US$ 133 million and Ethereum, US$ 41.8 million. Solana was the positive exception: +US$ 2.4 million.
#Dolar #Brasil #CarryTrade #selic #ETFs s
Login to explore more contents