Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains under heavy pressure since its October 2025 All Time High (ATH) but the BTC/GOLD ratio reveals that the real selling pressure in terms of the precious yellow metal has been boiling up for some time before that date.
In fact the ratio's last High was in August 2025, which technically was a Lower High as the true Top for BTC/GOLD's Cycle was in December 2024. Mind-blowing revelation indeed and that undoubtedly draws similarities with the previous Cycle, which also had a Double Top in 2021.
The key indicator here is the 1M RSI of the ratio. It has a Lower Lows trend-line, which has priced all Cycle bottoms since 2015. More recently (since January 2019) there is a diverging Lower Lows trend-line (dashed) also. The tight zone within those two trend-lines may be holding the key for this Cycle's bottom.
This shows that the bottom may be closer than we may expect but the last Bear Cycle showed a slowing down behavior once it approached the RSI Lower Lows and turned sideways before it finally made contact with it 6 months later. For the real BTC/GOLD price action though, the downtrend didn't slow down as much, first breaking violently below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and finding bottom 6 months later as mentioned just above the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
If we have a decreasing rate on the MA bottoms, we can expect the current Cycle to bottom below the 1M MA100 this time, closer to the 1M MA150 (red trend-line).
So closer than it looks or not in terms of bottom, the Bear Cycle is entering its 2nd and final Phase.
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