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After BTC’s sharp drop toward the $80,000 zone on Nov 21, Bitcoin has managed to hold above this level for several days, sparking debate on whether a short-term bottom may already be in.

🔍 Is Bitcoin Forming a Local Bottom?

According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman, current on-chain data shows a market going through institutional redistribution, short-term structural weakness, and the early signs of a potential recovery phase — all characteristics often seen near local bottoms.

🟦 Whale & Retail Behavior Still Bearish

Large holders are still offloading:

10,000+ BTC whales – net sellers
1,000–10,000 BTC cohorts – also selling

Aleman notes that this reflects continued institutional profit-taking and risk reduction, increasing market supply.

Retail isn’t helping either:

0–1 BTC wallets – selling over the last 60 days
1–10 BTC wallets – also net distribution

This shows limited retail demand during the correction.

🟩 But Mid-Sized Players Are Accumulating

Some important cohorts are quietly buying:

100–1,000 BTC wallets – consistent accumulation
10–100 BTC wallets – slow, steady buying

These groups often act as early-cycle stabilizers, and their activity is helping the market cool off after an 11-day selling streak.

💡 A Reversal Depends on One Key Group

Aleman highlights that a trend reversal becomes more convincing only if mid-sized buyers continue absorbing supply.

Whales in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range are still distributing, making confirmation of a full trend shift uncertain for now.

📈 Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Weekly?

Analyst Ash Crypto adds another interesting signal:

BTC is showing a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart — a setup that typically appears before strong continuation rallies.

This suggests:

Selling pressure is fading
Momentum is stabilizing
Weekly RSI may be ready to flip upward

A confirmed divergence could strengthen the argument that BTC is gearing up for a renewed upside move.

📉 Where BTC Stands Now

Bitcoin is trading around $87,150, still roughly 30% below its ATH of $126,000. The recent correction has wiped out gains across multiple time frames, including YTD, with BTC down nearly 9% in that window.

Is this the calm before Bitcoin attempts a move back toward the 90k region?

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