Today is D-Day — the announcement of inflation for March. Let's consider two scenarios:
1. Inflation has decreased — this would tell us nothing, as the retaliatory tariffs are not reflected in the March data, and we will see the inflation response in the April data.
As we now know, Trump suspended tariffs for some countries, so a decrease in inflation and tariffs is an easy long squeeze and a rebound with consolidation, but then a drop if inflation also decreases in April.
2. No changes — a slight increase and a decrease in volatility due to the awareness of uncertainty and the expectation of rising inflation, since some tariffs are still in effect.
3. Increased — unlikely (0.1% - margin of error), but: drop and rise, since if inflation rises, then the dollar, oil, stocks, and crypto rise.
What is most likely?
Inflation has decreased, reasons: expectation of increased oil production, the dollar is depreciating, unemployment is rising, reduction in budget and consumer spending.
When inflation falls — all markets, stocks, and crypto become cheaper. Therefore, the current rebound will not be a rise. It seems that the US has realized that measures to reduce inflation are sufficient, and excessive tariffs will lead to a recession with a hard landing.
#MarketRebound #TariffsPause