#TrumpTariffs

🏭 Scope of the new tariffs

Steel & aluminum: Trump issued a presidential proclamation under Section 232 increasing tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025 .

China: A “reciprocal tariff” framework reinstates a 55% U.S. levy on Chinese imports—a rollover from a previous 145% high—in exchange for China’s 10% on U.S. goods .

Auto imports: Trump is “considering” raising vehicle tariffs beyond the current 25% to spur U.S. manufacturing investment .

EU & smartphones: In May, he threatened 50% tariffs on all EU imports and 25% on foreign-made smartphones unless companies like Apple shift production to the U.S. .

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🔍 Economic & market impacts

Canned food prices: Tariffs on tin‐mill steel could drive up staple food costs (tuna, beans, Spam) by up to 15%, worsening food insecurity .

Manufacturing strain: Despite the goal of a domestic manufacturing boom, higher input costs have led to output contraction and supply chain stress .

Markets & inflation:

Equities are volatile—Dow swung down 230 pts then back up 101 pts—while the CBOE VIX spiked as markets digest trade threats .

Inflation remains moderate (~2.4% in May), though analysts warn tariffs could add 0.4 pp inflation and shave ~0.6 pp off long-term growth .

Federal fiscal effects: CBO projects tariffs could raise $3 trillion over the next decade, enough to offset the cost of Trump’s proposed tax cuts—although critics label the method regressive and economically risky .

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