1. Geopolitical unrest
Due to Iran-Israel tensions, a risk-off sentiment was observed in the markets, leading to declines in stocks and crypto. Notably, during one trading session, a sudden wave of liquidations was seen close to $106,000 to $103,000, which accelerated the downturn.
2. The end of rate cut expectations
Bearish sentiment in Bitcoin persisted as the likelihood of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve diminished — a Journal of Finance analysis indicates this is one of the primary reasons for the massive sell-off.
3. Bearish sentiment in the retail market
Buyer sentiment has decreased, stalling bullish momentum as people moved into a protective mode, particularly with bearish sentiment returning at the digital 'Liberation Day' level.
🛠 Technical analysis & recovery prospects
Support levels:
The 50-day EMA is located around $103,100 — this is a stable support zone, and if the price falls below it, it could go further down.
And if it goes below $102,000, a $102k–$104k rebound is possible, as suggested by Cointelegraph.
On-chain data:
The RHODL Ratio indicates that long-term holders are in a strong position, and prices could be nearing the end of a correction around $105k.
ETF flow:
Continuous inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF provides a short-term bullish signal.
🔮 Expected future scenario
Short-term (1–2 weeks):
• If $103k support holds, the price could trade in the range of $108k–$111k.
• In a worse scenario, the price could drop to the $102k to $100k level.
Medium-term (month):
The price could test resistance near $112k if the stock markets and ETF flow remain stable.
Long-term (2025–2030):
• Cathie Wood has predicted that prices could reach $1.5 million by 2030.
• Tom Lee believes it could reach $150k by the end of this year, with $3 million possible by 2030.
• Michael Saylor predicts $21 million by 2046.
Summary post (informational tone)
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Recent decline in Bitcoin – June 2025
Reasons:
• Iran-Israel tensions have created a risk mood in stocks/crypto.
• Concerns over U.S. rate tightening have eased, limiting long-term investments.
• Severe bearish sentiment was observed among retail investors, emotions are mixed following liquidation.
Technical analysis:
• Support: around $103k-104k (50-day EMA)
• Resistance: $108k–112k
• If $102k breaks, a rebound is possible ($102k–104k).
Expected price:
• Short term: volatility within $102k–111k
• Medium term: will reach $112k with a flash recovery
• Long-term: $150k (by 2025), $1M+ (2030+), and some experts predict $3M–$21M (very long horizon)
Conclusion:
Although the recent downturn has challenged the market, strong technical support, ETF flow, and holder positions indicate recovery. However, in the short term, the market will depend on geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.