XRP news today: XRP faces a breakout risk as whales exit and the $2.65 support is under pressure

Key points:

XRP has dropped 19% in 3 weeks, facing critical support at $2.65.

Whale wallets have offloaded 640 million XRP since July 9, signaling major distribution pressure.

$2.65 aligns with the VWAP and the 50% Fibonacci retracement — a break below could trigger a complete retracement to $2.00.

XRP price approaches key support as the correction deepens.

XRP is under technical pressure and increasing on-chain after dropping nearly 19% from its 2025 peak of $3.65 reached on July 18. As of Monday, XRP is trading around $2.99 but struggles to reclaim the resistance zone of $3.10 to $3.00 — a level that now acts as a major barrier to recovery.

The sell-off pushed XRP to briefly test a crucial support area between $2.66 and $2.80 over the weekend before rebounding to form a higher low, suggesting a temporary pause in selling pressure.

Whales exit as market structure weakens

CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows a sustained exodus of whales, with large holders offloading over 640 million XRP since July 9, worth about $340 million.

This marks an extended distribution phase as whale wallets — defined as addresses holding significant XRP — continue to reduce their exposure, contributing to the recent price drop.

"If whales continue to exit, it puts additional pressure on key support levels," noted analysts tracking net whale flows.

$2.65: The decisive level for XRP

Traders are closely watching $2.65, a level that aligns with several technical indicators:

This marks the quarterly VWAP (volume-weighted average price), a fair value indicator commonly used by institutions.

This is also the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from $2 to $3.65.

Previously, this acted as strong resistance during the first half of 2025, before turning into support in July.

"A sustained drop below $2.65 could trigger a complete retracement, bringing prices back to $2.00," said crypto trader Nebraskangooner, referring to a complete reversal of the recent uptrend.

What the charts say

Technical analyst Dom noted that XRP has held $2.80, a key short-term interest area, but remains vulnerable unless $2.65 is defended.

Mind Trader added that XRP has now completed a 50% retracement of its rally from $2 to $3.65 — a critical point often seen as a decision area between continuity and breakdown.

If $2.65 holds, analysts see potential for a new push towards $4.15, a possible new all-time high. But if support breaks, XRP risks retesting its previous lows near $2.00, effectively wiping out Q3 gains.

Decisive week for XRP

With whale exits continuing and volume concentration shifting, XRP's ability to hold $2.65 will determine whether the Q3 rally resumes or unravels, according to Cointelegraph.

Key levels to watch:

Support: $2.80 (short term), $2.65 (critical), $2.00 (macro)

Resistance: $3.00 to $3.10, then $3.25 and $3.65

Breakout target (if the trend resumes): $4.15