Crypto AK Weekly｜BTC Week 51 Bear Market Confirmed
The drop speed was beyond expectations
Analysis ≠ trading, trading must first analyze
BTC bear market trend has been completely set
This drop speed exceeded my expectations, core trend + practical advice 👇
Market core: The bear market has landed, the drop speed far exceeds expectations….
As early as the high point of $115,000-$125,000, there were repeated warnings of a bear market. At $97,000, it was also clearly stated that this was a good opportunity to short, and the subsequent trend fully confirmed the prediction!
The weekly EMA120 key support was directly breached, the bull-bear boundary indicator broke, perfectly replicating the bull-to-bear trend of 2021-2022. The previous target below $80,000 was $78,000. This time, the predicted direction was correct, but I bought the spot too early to bet on a rebound.
This time I fell into the predicted pit:
Originally looking at the support level of 78,000 could not hold, dropped to 69,000 with no support, the overall drop speed exceeded my expectations, BTC has now reached the 60,000 mark
Using the 126,000 USD peak as a base, combined with the drop, historical trends, and market cycles, recalculate the bottom level and time for this round of bear market:
Base drop (corresponding to 126000 peak)
• Breaking 75,000: drop 40.48%
• Breaking 74,000: drop 41.27%
• To 70,000: drop 44.44%
• To 60,000: drop 52.38%
• To 54,000: drop 57.14%
• To 44,000: drop 65.08%
Historical replica drop (referring to the previous high of 69,000 dropping to 15,000 with a 77% drop)
• 77% drop corresponds to the target: 28,980 USD
Bottom + time double confirmation
The core technical bottom of this bear market is locked at 44,000-39,000 USD
If market sentiment drops to the extreme
It is not ruled out that it will probe the historical low of 28,980 USD
Timing aligns with the cryptocurrency market cycle, this round of downward trend will continue until the fourth quarter of 2026 (around October), focus on the support at the 50,000/60,000 mark in the short term, if this week closes below 74,000, the downward space will further open..
Suggested plan
1. BTC operations: The bearish trend has not changed, catching falling knives against the trend! Before seeing clear stabilization and volume signals, it's best to observe with a light position, and act when bottom signals are confirmed..
2. Avoid touching any other coins except BTC
3. Cash is king, keep enough bullets
Wait until the bottom range is confirmed in the fourth quarter of 2026
Reassess opportunities to build long-term positions
✅ This round is a trend bear market, not a short-term correction, going with the trend is key!
✅ 50,000/60,000 is an important short-term psychological support, once broken, it will accelerate the drop to the core bottom of 44,000-39,000, be alert for extreme situations at 28,980 low..
