Estimating Bitcoin's Support Levels for the Next Cycle Bottom
Using Monte Carlo simulations and the 200-week moving average, Diaman Partners estimates that the next Bitcoin cycle bottom could range between $60,000 and $80,000 by 2026.
It is now clear to most investors, especially those who have survived one or more crypto winters, that Bitcoin moves in cycles of approximately four years. Many argued until 2022 that Bitcoin would always remain above its previous highs.
This happened in 2011, in 2014, and in 2018. In 2022, however, the price of Bitcoin fell, due to the FTX collapse, to $15,000, below the fateful threshold of $20,000, which was briefly reached, albeit only for a few days in December 2017.
While everyone is trying to predict what the maximum value of Bitcoin will be in this cycle, which will likely end in late October 2025, the research department at Diaman Partners has attempted to understand how to estimate what the minimum value of Bitcoin will be in 2026, in case the crypto winter materializes in the coming months. Many experts speculate that the cyclical phase of Bitcoin has ended and that we are now entering a new, more "mature" phase of more consistent growth.
There are many reasons to support this thesis. ETFs in America are raising a lot of money, institutional demand, the rise of treasury companies, and pension funds that can now buy Bitcoin (at least in the United States).
