Can we see Bitcoin at $38,000 again? An analysis of the 'black swan' scenario
While everyone looks towards the peak of $150,000, many overlook reviewing historical support areas. Is it technically or economically possible for Bitcoin to lose more than 60% of its current value to return to levels of $38,000?
1. The price gap and technical analysis
Historically, Bitcoin tends to fill "price gaps" (CME Gaps). Although we are experiencing a strong bullish cycle in 2026, breaking key support levels at $75,000 and $60,000 could open the door for a violent correction.
$38,000 area: Represents a historical demand zone (Institutional Block) from which the market launched in previous cycles, and returning to it means a complete re-testing of institutional confidence.
2. Sharp decline scenarios (Black Swan Events)
Bitcoin cannot reach this number except in exceptional cases, such as:
Global liquidity crisis: Sudden economic recession pushes investors to liquidate high-risk assets (De-risking).
Unprecedented regulatory tightening: Sudden bans from major economic powers or technical crises in the protocol.
Failure of major platforms: Repeating the scenarios of crashes that the market witnessed in past years.
3. Does this scenario make sense now?
Professionally, the probability is very low in light of the existence of ETFs that provide a solid "price floor." The average purchase price for major institutions currently ranges between 50k and 65k, making the $38,000 area unlikely unless a collapse occurs in the entire global financial system.
Discussion question:
Do you think the time for "cheap" Bitcoin has ended forever? Or does the market always surprise us with harsh corrections to wash out the "weak hands"?
Share your opinions in the comments! 👇$BTC
