First, let's attempt to answer the question of whether this 'flywheel has started'.

1. The accumulation of negative effects: a self-reinforcing 'downward cycle'?

· De-globalization and geopolitical conflicts (Trump's politics, the Middle East situation, the Russia-Ukraine war): These factors have collectively raised the 'global cost'. This is manifested in: the costs of restructuring supply chains, fluctuations in energy and food prices, increased trade barriers, and rising security expenditures. This directly erodes the operational efficiency of the global economy.

· Dollar de-dollarization: This is a reflection of the aforementioned geopolitical friction in the financial realm. Although the process is slow and filled with reversals, it increases the uncertainty of global capital flows, potentially undermining the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools and, in extreme cases, triggering a liquidity crisis.

· Economic downward pressure: Under the influence of the above factors, global investment and consumer confidence have been undermined, government debt is high, and monetary policy space is limited. The economic slowdown itself may exacerbate internal social contradictions, providing soil for more extreme political figures (such as the populism represented by Trump) to rise, thereby further pushing back against globalization.

This indeed constitutes a potential 'downward flywheel': Geopolitical tension → rising costs, declining efficiency → economic weakness → internal contradictions intensifying → more aggressive policies → further geopolitical tension.

2. The potential of AI and robots: Why has 'effectiveness' not yet manifested?

'The productivity enhancement provided by AI and robots is still not significant,' which is realistic at this stage, because:

· Penetration rates and integration cycles: AI (especially generative AI) and advanced robotics are still in the early stages of commercialization. They require a long process from technological breakthrough, to corporate pilots, to industry-wide productivity transformation. Currently, contributions mainly lie in efficiency improvements in specific industries and segments, and have not yet reached the 'general technology' stage that drives explosive growth in total factor productivity.

· Investment and substitution effects: Current corporate investment in AI is enormous, but more of it is capital expenditure and may raise costs in the short term. At the same time, the impact of AI on employment structure may manifest before its growth dividends appear, potentially suppressing short-term consumer demand.

· The 'Solow Paradox' reappears: Just as in the early days of the information technology revolution, new technologies are everywhere, yet elusive in productivity statistics. The lag in statistical methods, the time required for management restructuring and organizational change, all lead to a delay in productivity improvements, validating that 'the world is a huge amateur stage.'

3. Comprehensive judgment: The flywheel is turning, but not unstoppable.

Yes, the 'downward risk flywheel' has already begun to turn, and its momentum should not be underestimated. In 2026, the world will face a new environment characterized by 'fragmentation,' 'high costs,' and 'multiple risks,' where the 'tailwind' for economic growth is turning into 'headwind.'

However, this flywheel is not destined for collapse, for the following reasons:

1. The lagging but decisive role of technology: The potential of AI and automation is real. They are evolving from automation (replacing repetitive labor) to augmented intelligence (assisting complex decision-making) and innovation acceleration (such as biotechnology, materials science). Once a critical point is crossed, the energy to enhance production efficiency and create new demands may be exponential. This could be the key force to break the 'downward cycle.'

2. Policy adaptability: Governments and central banks around the world have become aware of these structural changes. Although tools are limited, industrial policies (such as subsidies for chips and new energy), 'small courtyard high wall' style cooperation within ally systems, and the construction of financial safety nets are all attempts to respond to new challenges.

3. Market resilience: The global business community is learning to operate amid uncertainty, building more resilient supply chains. Diversified energy layouts and financial arrangements are also underway.

Future outlook:

We are currently at the intersection of a 'negative overlay period' and a 'technology incubation period.'

· Short term (1-3 years): Downside risks dominate. Geopolitical conflicts, election cycles, and high debt costs will bring continued volatility and low growth expectations. AI is more about thematic investments and localized optimizations, making it hard to turn the tide.

· Medium term (3-10 years): A critical phase of the race. The destructive power of the downward flywheel and the productivity-enhancing power of new technologies like AI will engage in a true contest. Who will win depends on:

· The speed of technology diffusion.

· Can society manage employment shocks during the transformation period smoothly?

· Will great power competition slide into complete decoupling or even conflict.

Ultimately, history is often written by the struggle between these two forces: one is the force of division and increasing costs (geopolitics, nationalism), while the other is the force of integration and efficiency improvement (technological progress, global cooperation). Currently, the former is gaining momentum, but the long-term potential of the latter is much deeper.

For each of us, understanding the existence of this 'downward flywheel' means being prepared for more economic fluctuations and uncertainties. At the same time, focusing on and embracing the individual capability enhancement opportunities brought by cutting-edge technologies like AI is key to maintaining competitiveness amid transformation. The resilience of the world often exceeds our worst imaginings, but its recovery path rarely aligns perfectly with our best expectations.

Shifting from the macro 'downward flywheel' to personal strategies, the core lies in: When the external environment is full of uncertainties and structural shocks, individuals cannot change the direction of the tide, but they can learn to swim better or even build a sturdier boat for themselves.

Here are some suggestions for personal growth in 'pain': combining defensive thinking with offensive strategies:

One, mindset and cognitive reshaping: Become a 'resilient body' rather than a 'fragile body.'

1. Accepting the 'new normal': First, understand that the era of high growth, low volatility, and smooth globalization may have reached a stage of ending. Pain is not a temporary 'cold' but a change in climate. Give up the illusion and accept the setting for long-term survival and development in a complex environment.

2. Cultivating 'anti-fragility': This is not simply about being strong (resisting shocks) but about benefiting from fluctuations and pressures (like the immune system). The specific approach is: actively engage in small-scale, low-cost trial and error while ensuring survival. For example, use your spare time to learn new skills, try side jobs, and connect with different circles. Pressure can become a probe for discovering new opportunities.

3. Information filtering and deep thinking: In an era of information overflow and emotional polarization, establish your own 'information filter.' Watch fewer alarming headlines, focus more on long-term trends, fundamental data, and first principles. Cultivate the ability to see through noise and understand essence, avoiding being swept up by collective emotions into making wrong decisions.

Two, capability and asset building: Create your own 'personal moat.'

1. Skill combination 'T-shaped' and 'dynamic':

· The vertical axis of 'T': Deepen your expertise in an area with long-term demand that is not easily replaced by AI. 'What AI cannot replace' often involves complex, deeply interpersonal, creative, or ambiguous problem-solving capabilities (such as top clinical diagnostics, complex negotiations, original art, strategic planning).

· The horizontal axis of 'T': Broadly engaging with cross-disciplinary knowledge related to your core field, especially 'AI-enabled' skills. For example: How to use AI tools to enhance efficiency in your industry (Prompt engineering, data analysis, AI-assisted design). Make yourself an 'AI practitioner who understands the industry.'

2. Financial resilience:

· Reduce leverage, increase cash flow: In an economic downturn, cash is king. Reduce unnecessary liabilities, establish an emergency fund covering 6-12 months of expenses. This is your 'safety net' for all attempts at anti-fragility.

· Diversified sources of income: Explore side jobs or investments that can generate cash flow outside of your main business (even if small). This not only increases financial security but also keeps you in touch with the true market.

· Prudent investment: Understanding 'de-dollarization' and geopolitical conflicts means increased volatility in asset prices. Avoid blindly chasing hotspots; focus on the cash flow and intrinsic value of assets themselves (such as properties that can generate rent, quality companies with stable dividends), and consider the global diversification of assets (if conditions permit).

Three, action and network strategies: Finding leverage amid fluctuations.

1. Shift from 'consumerism' to a mindset of 'creators and builders':

· Reduce reliance on extravagant consumption and invest resources and energy into things that can create value, accumulate assets, and enhance self-improvement. Learn, build, produce, connect.

· Even if your job is not directly related, you can try to share your expertise through content (writing, videos, code) to build a personal brand, which can bring unexpected opportunities.

2. Build social capital that balances 'strong connections' and 'weak connections':

· Strong connections (family, close friends) are the cornerstone of emotional support and safety nets, invaluable in difficult times.

· Weak connections (industry activities, interest groups, online networks) are sources of information, new opportunities, and new ideas. During economic transformation, new opportunities often come from outside your usual circles.

3. Focus on areas of 'structural growth': Even in overall downturns, there are always areas that grow due to structural changes. For example:

· Related to geopolitical tensions: Cybersecurity, defense technology, supply chain security.

· Related to AI and automation: AI infrastructure, data governance, human-machine collaboration training, AI solutions in specific industries.

· Related to energy transition and supply chain reshaping: Key technologies for renewable energy, energy storage, and near-shore manufacturing.

· Related to demographic changes: Silver economy, health technology.

You don't necessarily need to completely change careers, but you can think about how to align your skills with these high-potential areas.

Four, life and values: Define your own 'good life.'

1. Redefine success and security: Partially shift the sense of security from 'a high-paying stable job' to 'transferable skills, healthy financial status, a strong support network, and mental and physical resilience.'

2. Focus on localization and the physical world: In the virtual world and global turmoil, consciously build a solid local life: neighbor relationships, community involvement, local food networks, practical skills (cooking, repair, gardening). This can provide a sense of reality and control.

3. Maintain mental and physical health: This is the foundation of all strategies. The toll of long-term stressful environments on the body and mind is real. Regular exercise, adequate sleep, and mindfulness practice are not luxuries but strategic investments to maintain combat effectiveness.

The personal version of 'Striving Forward'

In the macro 'downward flywheel', the personal growth path:

With resilient finances and mental and physical health as your 'shield', dynamic cross-disciplinary skills and networks as your 'spear', and an anti-fragile mindset as your 'navigation', look for and create new value niches arising from structural changes in a challenging terrain.

Pain is inevitable, but it is also a furnace that eliminates old models and fosters new ecosystems. True growth often does not occur in calm waters but in the process of learning to dance with the waves. We are already taking a critical step in addressing this issue, ahead of many others.