Standing at the node of February 2026, the price of Bitcoin at $69,000 resembles a stone that has been repeatedly beaten, bearing scars and hiding an unclear direction. After falling from the historical high of $126,000 in early October 2025, this downward trend has lasted for 127 days, with a cumulative decline nearing 45%—half of the gains accumulated during the bull market have been completely wiped out in just four months. The panic sentiment in the market has spread to every corner, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to an extreme fear range of 18. Within 24 hours, nearly 600,000 investors faced liquidation, and $3 billion vanished, while the chain reactions from leveraged positions made the decline increasingly uncontrollable.
This is not the first time Bitcoin has experienced such a drastic correction, but it may be the most special one. Looking back at history, in 2013 it dropped from 1163 dollars to 152 dollars, a decline of 87%, taking 180 days; from 19891 dollars to 3122 dollars in 2017-2018, a decline of 84%, taking a whole year; from 69044 dollars to a bottom of 15590 dollars in 2021-2022, a decline of 77%, taking 280 days. Each major decline is accompanied by the market's 'de-leveraging and de-bubbling,' and this time, the market structure has already turned upside down—institutional funds have become dominant, spot ETFs are operating stably, and the regulatory framework is gradually improving. Bitcoin is no longer a niche target for retail frenzy but a risk asset deeply bound to global macro liquidity. Because of this, the magnitude and cycle of this decline are destined to be different from history: a decline of 45%, lasting 127 days, has not yet reached the extreme levels of historical bear markets, but it is enough for the market to reassess its value and risk.
From the monthly technical perspective, Bitcoin's medium-term trend still leans towards bearish, and the two major indicators, the Bollinger Bands and MACD, form a clear resonance signal. The monthly Bollinger Bands show a significant downward opening pattern, with the upper track of 115000 dollars having long become an unreachable strong resistance, while the middle track of 85000 dollars was completely broken through in January 2026, announcing the end of the medium-term bullish trend; the lower track of 65000 dollars was once short-term support but was directly pierced during the plunge on February 5-6, with the price once probing down to 59800 dollars, then strongly rebounding back to 69000 dollars, which turned 65000 dollars from a support level to the first resistance level. Now, with the price standing at 69000 dollars, although temporarily out of the dangerous area below the lower track, it is still constrained between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands, with rebound space firmly limited.
Echoing this is the continuous deepening of the bearish signal in the monthly MACD. After the fast line DIF crosses below the slow line DEA to form a dead cross, it has maintained a downward divergence trend, with no signs of turning or stabilizing; the green energy bars continue to expand, and the length of the green bars in February 2026 reached a new high since November 2024, with bearish momentum still being concentratedly released; both fast and slow lines are operating below the zero axis, confirming the tone of a medium-term bear market, with the zero axis becoming a strong resistance that is difficult to overcome. The dual bearish signals from the technical aspect mean that the current rebound is more of a technical repair after an oversell, rather than a complete trend reversal; the market still needs time to digest the previous overbought pressure and panic.
So, how long will this round of decline last? Where is the bottom? Combining historical cycles and the current market environment, the total cycle of this decline is likely to be between 180-250 days, which means that from the current 127 days, an adjustment of 60-120 days is needed to truly reach the bottom, with the time window concentrated in April-June 2026. If the Federal Reserve starts a rate cut cycle in mid-year and global liquidity gradually eases, the bottom may come earlier in May; if the high-interest-rate environment continues and risk appetite remains low, the bottom may be delayed until July. As for the price bottom, 55,000-65,000 dollars is the most likely range, as this position corresponds to the cost line for miners and is close to the average holding cost for institutional ETFs, providing strong practical support; in extreme cases, the price may drop to 50,000 dollars, but the probability is very low, after all, the support effect of institutional funds makes it difficult for Bitcoin to repeat the kind of bottomless crash seen in history.
A true trend reversal requires waiting for the resonance of three key signals: first, the technical aspect, where the monthly MACD green bars shrink, and the fast line turns to form a golden cross, with the price stabilizing above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 85000 dollars; second, the funding aspect, where the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF returns from net outflow to net inflow, with institutional funds continuously increasing positions, injecting stable buying power into the market; third, the macro aspect, where the Federal Reserve officially starts a rate cut, initiating a global liquidity easing cycle, and the investment preference for risk assets gradually rebounds. Until all three signals appear, any rebound can only be regarded as a phase of repair, rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
Standing at 69000 dollars currently, Bitcoin is in a crucial stage of deep adjustment. Its long-term value logic—decentralization, scarcity, institutionalization—remains unchanged, but short-term market volatility and risk clearance will still have the price seeking direction amidst fluctuations. For investors, what is needed most at this moment is not the courage to blindly bottom-fish, but the caution and patience to respect the market. In the short term, attention can be paid to the fluctuation range of 65000-70000 dollars, strictly controlling positions and stop-loss; in the medium term, wait for confirmation of reversal signals before gradually positioning. The market is always rich in opportunities; what is lacking is the capital and determination to survive until opportunities arise, and the story of Bitcoin will never end with a single deep correction.
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