🔥 How Big is DeFi 2020–2021?
📊 Peak Data of DeFi Cycle 2021
Total DeFi Market Cap (peak 2021): ± $170–180 Billion
TVL (Total Value Locked) peak: ± $180 Billion
AAVE: Market cap peak ± $8–10B
UNI: Market cap peak ± $20–22B
YFI: Market cap peak ± $2–3B
Many tokens rose 20x–100x from the bottom
DeFi at that time:
New industry
Explosive TVL
Narrative of 'Bankless Banking'
But the global DeFi market size at that time was still niche compared to the global financial industry.
🤖 Now: How Big is AI Coin?
📊 Total Market Cap AI Coin (current cycle estimate)
Total AI Crypto Market Cap: ± $25–40 Billion (depending on market phase)
Still far below DeFi peak 2021
Example market cap range:
Coin Market Cap Range
TAO ± $3–5B
RNDR ± $3–4B
FET ± $2–4B
AGIX ± $1–2B
Meaning?
If the AI narrative reaches the size of DeFi peak ($180B), then mathematically speaking:
> The AI sector still has room for 4–6x just to match DeFi 2021.
Not including the mania phase of euphoria.
🧠 Industry Scale Comparison
This is interesting.
💰 DeFi Industry:
Market target: crypto user
Size of global finance: trillions
But DeFi only takes a small share
🧠 AI Industry:
The global AI market is projected to reach hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars
Nvidia itself once broke a market cap > $1 Trillion
Big tech invests hundreds of billions in AI
AI is not just a crypto narrative.
This is a global transformation.
📈 Bull Market Scenario Simulation
If BTC rises 3x from the bottom:
Usually:
ETH rises 5–7x
Main narrative sector rises 10–20x
AI Bull Mania Scenario:
If:
Total AI market cap rose from $30B → $150B
That means 5x sector overall
So:
Mid-cap AI could be 10–20x
Small-cap AI could be 20–50x
Exactly like DeFi 2020.
⚠️ But There Is An Important Difference
DeFi 2020:
Token supply is relatively small
Retail is still early to enter
Competition is still limited
AI now:
Many VCs unlock
More projects
The market is more selective
Meaning: Not all AI coins will soar.
🎯 Key If AI Wants to Be Crazier than DeFi
AI could be more explosive if:
1. There is an AI crypto app that is truly used widely
2. Real revenue increases
3. BTC enters parabolic phase
4. Global liquidity is loose
5. Retail returns FOMO
If everything aligns: AI could become “DeFi Summer version 2.0” on a larger scale.
🏁 Conclusion Data-Based
✔ By market cap → AI is still much smaller than DeFi peak
✔ By global narrative → AI is much stronger
✔ By potential → Can be 5–10x sector
✔ Individually coins → 10–30x very likely in a bull market
But still:
> 70% of projects are unlikely to survive the next cycle.