Two years have passed since the 2024 halving, and the crypto market has entered a phase that analysts call the 'moment of truth.' After a dizzying rise in 2025, when BTC set all conceivable records, today investors are asking one question: does 'digital gold' have fuel left for new growth?

We are examining the factors that will determine price movement in the coming quarters.

The effect of institutional 'anchoring'

The main difference in the current cycle is the dominance of spot ETFs. Previously, the market was driven by the emotions of retail traders, but today the price largely depends on the inflow of capital from large funds.

Stability: Institutions rarely close positions at the first sign of panic, which creates a strong 'floor' for the price in the range of $60,000 – $65,000.

Liquidity: The presence of BlackRock and Fidelity makes the market more mature, but also more dependent on U.S. macroeconomic data.

Macroeconomic context: The Fed and inflation

Bitcoin has stopped being an isolated asset. Its correlation with the Nasdaq index is higher than ever.

Interest rates: Expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are the main driver. Once money becomes 'cheaper', capital flows into riskier assets.

Global instability: In conditions of geopolitical turbulence (which is especially relevant for Eastern European regions), BTC continues to confirm its status as a hedging tool.

Technical view: Can you deceive cyclicality?

Historical data shows that after a phase of parabolic growth (which we saw in 2025), the market needs a 'healthy' correction of 30–40%.

Analyst's opinion: "The current cooling is not the end of the bull market, but a redistribution of power. We are witnessing the exit of 'weak hands' and the accumulation of positions by long-term holder investors!"

This article is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves high risks.

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