Many people complain to Uncle Meow, 'The price has now fallen below the production cost of mainstream mining machines. Will the market continue to decline, creating an even deeper bottom range?'

This issue has already emerged in 2022. If we consider historical patterns, the market will continue to deviate from the shutdown price of mining machines during times of extreme panic, directly creating a deep pit (the bear market bottom will inevitably briefly break through the mainstream mining machine cost line, and after the clearing of computing power and difficulty adjustment, prices will return to the shutdown price, with the absolute bottom price continuously rising as the industry matures).

That period should be the absolute bear bottom we are looking forward to/worried about.

Continuing to deduce, assuming the market continues to panic, how much will market prices deviate? Let's start:

1. Current shutdown price of BTC mining machines (February 2026)

Using a calculation standard of $0.08 per kWh and a 5% mining pool fee (shutdown price = (daily power consumption of mining machine × electricity price) ÷ (daily BTC output × 95%)), the entire network of mining machines forms a clear cost hierarchy based on efficiency, with computing power mainly concentrated in the critical shutdown range:

1. High-end new models (Antminer S23 Hyd/U3S23H): Shutdown price $44,000, currently in a profitable state, with the best anti-dip resistance in the entire network;

2. Mainstream computing power leaders (Antminer S21 series): Shutdown price $69,000 - $74,000, accounting for a large share of the entire network's computing power, and at a critical shutdown node.

3. Mid-to-high-end old models (神马M60S/Antminer S19 XP+ Hydro, etc.): Shutdown price $75,000 - $80,000, already slightly unprofitable, close to shutdown;

4. Old models (Antminer S19 Standard): Shutdown price $85,000, deeply unprofitable, has largely been shut down and cleared.

Summary: The shutdown price for mainstream BTC mining machines (at $0.08 per kWh) is anchored between $60,000 and $74,000.

2. Fitting the previous two bull and bear cycles to deduce the bottom of this bear market

The two rounds of bear markets in 2018 and 2022 verified the core logic that 'shutdown price is the core cost anchor, bottom breaks the cost line, and deviation narrows with industry maturity.' The specific characteristics and differences are as follows:

The 2018 bear market (bottom at $3200)

Mainstream mining machines (S9) have a shutdown price of approximately $4,000, with the bottom 20% below the shutdown price, lasting 2-3 months; at that time, the industry was primarily retail, with high-cost miners concentrated in clearance, and the entire network's computing power plummeted until the difficulty was significantly adjusted downwards, after which prices stabilized and bottomed out, with a long bottoming cycle.

The 2022 bear market (bottom at $15,500)

Mainstream mining machines (S19 series) have a shutdown price of approximately $18,000, with the bottom 14% below the shutdown price, and the deviation narrowed by 6 percentage points compared to 2018; institutional miners' share has increased, and the reduction of computing power is more moderate. After the difficulty is adjusted downwards, prices quickly return to the shutdown price, significantly improving the efficiency of bottom rebounds.

2026 cycle (deduced bottom of $50,000 - $70,000)

Mainstream mining machines (S21 series) have a shutdown price of $69,000 - $74,000, with the bottom expected to be 5%-10% below the shutdown price, and the deviation further narrowing; the degree of institutionalization in the industry deepens, computing power iteration accelerates, and with institutional funds providing bottom support, the reduction of computing power will be more gradual, with stronger bottom support and possibly a further shortened bottoming cycle.

Uncle Meow believes that there are common parts in each cycle, which is the history repeating itself.

1. Commonality: The bottom of the bear market will inevitably briefly break through the current mainstream mining machine's shutdown price. After breaking through, it triggers a closed loop of 'high-cost mining machine clearance → computing power decline → difficulty adjustment → shutdown price decline → new support formation.' This event is basically certain to occur.

2. Trends: With the iteration of computing power, institutionalization of miners, and regional differentiation of electricity prices, the deviation of the bottom from the shutdown price continues to narrow (20% → 14% → 5%-10%), and the absolute price of the bear market bottom shows a stepwise upward trend ($3200 → $15,500 → $55,000 - $70,000). It can also be inferred that the bottom price of the next bear market will continue to rise.

4. Using the shutdown price to deduce the core logic of the deep bear market bottom

The shutdown price is the core line of computing power support, not an absolute iron bottom. Short-term market sentiment and liquidity shocks may cause prices to significantly break through the shutdown price, but this state is not sustainable. Continuous breaches will trigger passive contraction of the entire network's computing power, forming upward price repair momentum. This is a passive bottom-dragging process formed spontaneously by the market, not necessarily related to miners.

To summarize:

In the previous records of bull and bear cycles, the shutdown price has always been the core cost anchor of the BTC bear market. The bottom must break through, deviations must narrow, and prices must rise. However, there are differences in the three cycles: in summary, 2018 was a 'deep drop with slow grinding', 2022 was a 'shallow drop with quick rebound', and 2026 is expected to be a 'slight drop with steady support'.

Based on the above content, it is inferred that the deep bear bottom in 2026 will be between $60,000 and $74,000 as the current core price support for computing power, with $50,000 as the core price support for the deep bear bottom. Once the market breaks through these price lines, it will cause computing power to clear + institutional support, ultimately driving prices to quickly return to the cost line.

So, there is no need for everyone to panic excessively now. The current weighted shutdown price across the network is between $65,000 and $70,000. Based on this price, we are approaching the deepest bear bottom, which aligns with the above deductions. Of course, the market is not as bad as everyone imagines! The price bottom is likely to form near the last cycle's peak, around the $60,000 range (or it might dip again after a black swan event, but it won't be particularly low). As for when the dip might occur, it could fall in the first half of 2026, and then gradually establish a more solid price support range.

Many people say that now is the starting point of a deep bear market, but Uncle Meow believes that the current market weakening is more likely to be a correction approaching its end. Although short-term fluctuations are still hard to avoid, if a reversal occurs in the second half of 2026 as expected, it may open what he calls 'the most critical cycle', whose impact may even surpass the traditional four-year cycle.

Uncle Meow still says: 'Don't panic too much; it’s useless. Always expect the future to be better.'