Twelve years ago, when I first got into investing, I was completely ignorant — I didn’t even understand the delivery rules for crude oil futures and dared to go all in; the crypto space was even more confusing! At that time, someone said 'Bitcoin can be exchanged for pizza', and I was skeptical: isn’t this a pyramid scheme? I didn’t take it seriously at all.
It wasn't until 2016 that I first stepped into the crypto pit: a friend said ETH would rise, and I didn’t even know what a 'smart contract' was. I opened the Binance interface and searched randomly, buying $10,000 worth (approximately 150 ETH). At that time, I didn't know how to look at K-lines; I panicked when it increased by 5%, quickly selling half; later, ETH directly tripled, and I was scared to sell at a 40% drop — looking back now, I relied entirely on my instincts for buying and selling, and my positions were 'buying as much as I remembered', purely reckless!
It wasn’t until 2019 when the crypto market began to stabilize that I truly stopped being reckless and started actively laying out — that year, I focused on opportunities and heavily invested in Bitcoin. The 2018 bear market had thoroughly depressed the market, with Bitcoin crashing from $20,000 to $3,000, slowly recovering to over $4,000 by early 2019, but it hadn't reached the frenzied stage yet. At that time, I felt I had grasped the essence of the crypto space: on one hand, I was flipping through Federal Reserve reports, finding that the pace of rate hikes was slowing, and liquidity was about to ease; on the other hand, I was monitoring the mining costs of Bitcoin, which were just around $4,000, covering the cost lines of most mining farms, and I could see whales quietly accumulating on-chain. Confident, I split my $500,000 into three batches: buying 1/3 at $4,200 (about 12 BTC), adding another 1/3 at $3,800 during a pullback, and fully investing the last 1/3 at $3,500 — my positions were tightly controlled, absolutely not impacting household expenses. By the end of the year, when Bitcoin had risen to $12,000, I didn’t get greedy: I first sold 1/3 to pay off previous debts, then sold another 1/3 to buy a new washing machine for my wife, keeping the remaining 1/3 as a bottom warehouse. This made me understand that 'layout must wait for stabilization, and selling must look at valuation peaks'; being patient is much more effective than rushing in!
In 2020, after experiencing the 312 black swan event, I seized the opportunity to lay out Ethereum. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted 30% in a single day, and I was about to face a margin call with 20% of my BTC contracts. However, seeing the Federal Reserve's statement of 'unlimited QE' and the fear and greed index dropping to 12, I dared to add margin to hold on. Once the market stabilized, I found the opportunity for Ethereum: DeFi began to explode, projects like Uniswap were emerging, the locked volume of ETH was rapidly increasing, and everyone in the industry was discussing the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade. I judged that 'the ecological value of Ethereum must exceed its mere currency attributes.' So, I laid out Ethereum in four batches: starting to buy from $180, adding to the position every $20 drop, and finally converting 15% of my funds into ETH spot, while lightly opening some long-term contracts. By the end of the year, ETH had nearly tripled from its bottom, rising to over $500. I didn’t sell all of it; I only reduced my position by 20% to take profits — this layout made me more certain that when selecting targets, one must look at the 'ecological fundamentals', not just the price movements. The DeFi ecosystem of ETH serves as the best support.
At the peak of the bull market in 2021, relying on the Bitcoin laid out in 2019 and the Ethereum bottom warehouse set up in 2020, I had the confidence to face the bubble. At that time, Bitcoin surged to $60,000 and Ethereum broke $4,000, while people around me were shouting 'over $100,000, towards $5,000', but I calculated three key data points: Grayscale BTC Trust's premium rate dropped from 20% to -5% (institutions were reducing positions), the US CPI rose to 6.2% (the Federal Reserve was tightening liquidity), and the number of active addresses on the ETH chain began to decline (retail investors were struggling to take over). I quickly adjusted: I converted 80% of my contract positions into BTC and ETH spot, opened a 5% put option hedge on Deribit, and converted the remaining 15% into stablecoins. Within two months, LUNA collapsed, BTC dropped to $30,000, and ETH fell below $1,900. The bottom warehouse I had laid out before hardly lost, and the put options even earned $200,000 — this made me understand that the core assets laid out in advance serve as a 'safety cushion', even in the craziest bull market, one must keep some reserves.
Before the FTX meltdown in 2022, my risk assessment of the market became more accurate. Many people were hoarding the BTC I laid out in 2019 and the ETH I laid out in 2020 on FTX, but I checked Alameda's balance sheet and found that its holdings of LUNA and SOL were too high, and the reserve proof of FTX was vague, which immediately alerted me that 'the platform was going to have issues.' A month in advance, I cleared 15% of my BTC and ETH positions on FTX and transferred them to Ceffu for custody, even advising friends to withdraw their coins quickly — in the end, I didn’t lose a penny, and I understood better that even when laying out core assets, one must choose the right custody platform; risk warnings are more important than the temptation of profits.
To this day, in my 'tide resonance' system, the experiences of laying out Bitcoin in 2019 and Ethereum in 2020 have become the most core reference logic:
When determining the total warehouse at a macro level, I pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policy to adjust the positions of BTC and ETH (increase 10% for rate hikes and decrease 10% for rate cuts). Currently, 40% of my holdings are BTC from my 2019 bottoming and subsequent purchases, 20% are ETH laid out in 2020, gradually increased, and the remaining 10% are other small coins with ecosystems, never fully invested;
When selecting targets at the meso level, I still use the logic of looking at 'cost lines and ecological trends' as before, for example, if BTC ETF inflows exceed $1 billion in a single week, I’ll increase my positions, and if ETH staking volume grows over 5% monthly, I’ll add more positions;
When determining micro buy and sell points, if the RSI exceeds 70, reduce the position of the bottom warehouse laid out in 2019 and 2020, and add more if it drops below 30, without being greedy about short-term fluctuations or panicking over short-term declines.
Last year, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, I also relied on this logic: I saw the Federal Reserve launch the BTFP tool to release liquidity and found that funds were temporarily shifting to USDT, so I took the 30% profit (about $500,000) from my 2019 BTC and 2020 ETH and converted it to buy short-term Treasury futures for hedging. After the market rebounded and increased by 5%, I sold half, pocketing $25,000.
Now when people ask me 'how to make money in the crypto space', I always say: 'Don’t just chase hot trends, you have to find the right timing and see through the logic before laying out, just like waiting for Bitcoin to stabilize in 2019 and observing the Ethereum ecosystem in 2020. It's crucial to understand three things: what makes the coins you buy valuable (BTC relies on its decentralized currency attributes, ETH relies on the DeFi ecosystem), whether price movements are driven by liquidity or fundamentals, and how much you can endure if it drops.' Just like I’m still using my old computer to watch the market, with a receipt from 2019 when I sold BTC to buy a washing machine for my wife stuck on the screen — that was the first solid money I made from Bitcoin laid out in 2019, and it also gave me the confidence for all my subsequent operations.
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