The real "powder keg" of this round of AI panic is buried in the credit market, and the trigger point is not high liquidity bonds, but rather the $30 trillion, extremely opaque private credit. The current brutal sell-off is not the crisis itself, but the pre-pricing of the crisis.

Direct evidence — the panic transmission chain has become very clear:

📍 Step one: the target is clear (the software industry is the creditor's favorite)

Software companies account for 17% of loans from U.S. business development companies (BDC) and are the most favored borrowing group by private credit funds. The threat from Anthropic tools is not the abstract "tech stock valuations," but the cash flow foundation of these borrowing enterprises.

📍 Step 2: Solid evidence has emerged (asset quality deteriorating rapidly)

By the end of January, $25 billion in software loans had fallen into distress (valued at 80% below par), accounting for one-third of the total distressed loans in the U.S. Just a month ago, this number was still $11 billion—an alarming rate of deterioration.

📍 Step 3: Risk pricing (expected surge in default rates)

UBS stress test: Under accelerated impacts from AI, the default rate on U.S. private credit bonds in a severe scenario could reach 13%. In comparison—leveraged loans at 8%, high-yield bonds at 4%. This is not 'slight volatility', but a systemic level credit reassessment.

📍 Step 4: Creditors are hurt (stock price cliff)

The market is already punishing credit players: Ares plunges 12%, KKR drops nearly 10%, Blue Owl declines over 8%. In the same period, the S&P 500 only fell 0.1%—this is not a drag from the market, but a targeted demolition.

Will the subsequent spiral chain reaction come?

Yes. Moreover, the path has already become vaguely visible:

🔗 Chain 1: Financing freeze → Backlash against AI itself

UBS clearly warns: Corporate debt turmoil will make financing more difficult, thereby hitting the AI investment boom. Ironically? AI disrupts the software industry → Credit tightens → AI's own financing costs rise. This is a closed-loop, self-destructive transmission.

🔗 Chain 2: The 'cockroach effect' of opaque markets

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi stated: 'Significant credit issues are bound to emerge. If current credit growth continues, the industry will not be able to absorb losses like it does now in a year.' Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan's warning about the 'cockroach effect'—seeing one means there's a whole nest beneath— is coming true.

🔗 Chain 3: From 'rotation' to 'deleveraging'

This is the most dangerous qualitative change. Jin Ten News captured key signals: Panic has spread from software stocks to logistics and transportation, the 'old economy'. The market is no longer rotating industries but is selling assets to reduce risk budgets. This is a precursor to systemic liquidity tightening.

🔗 Chain 4: The metaphor of the 'bubble top' in century bonds

Alphabet just issued a £1 billion century bond; analysts warn: credit spreads at historic lows, uncertain data center demand, accelerated technological iterations—this is a classic signal of excessive optimism at the tail end of the credit cycle. When even the highest quality companies are locking in financing costs for the next 100 years, it indicates that money has become so expensive that it makes the future seem frightening.

Currently, gold stocks are all falling; on the surface, it's 'risk aversion', but in reality, institutions are covering margins and selling everything liquid they can. However, the real life-and-death battle is not in the stock market, but in that $30 trillion private credit black box, where no one can see how big the risks are. When bad debts inside start to spill over, it will mark the turning point of this AI panic from 'volatility' to 'crisis'.