ETH current price is $1,941. Daily RSI is 28.57 (severely oversold), 4-hour MACD histogram turns positive (+0.28), downward momentum is weakening but moving averages still suppress. Extreme fear is spreading, but ETFs had a net inflow of $71 million yesterday, and institutions are buying against the trend.
🕯️ Key levels of candlestick chart: Focus on two signal areas
• Short defense line (1,960-1,975): The hourly chart forms a bearish trend line suppression. If a rebound occurs here with a long upper shadow/engulfing pattern, it is a standard signal for shorting at highs.
• Long bottom line (1,900): Today's most critical psychological support. If it pulls back and forms a hammer line or bullish engulfing, combined with a decrease in volume stabilizing, a technical rebound can be speculated.
🌊 Wave theory deduction: AB face is clear
From the 2,168 high point going down, there are currently two probabilistic paths:
✅ Path A (preferred—end of wave C): A wave decline completed → B wave rebound (rejected at 2,149) → C wave extending. If a bottom reversal signal appears in the 1,900-1,920 area, then wave C may conclude, with the first rebound target at 1,975-2,000.
⚠️ Path B (secondary choice—continuation of impulse wave): If it effectively breaks down below 1,893 (previous low), then it is only a continuation of the downward 3 wave, opening space below, targeting the 1,800-1,747 range.
⚔️ Today's best strategy range (high win rate core)
🔴 Bearish idea (main strategy, favorable risk-reward ratio)
• Ideal range: 1,965-1,980 (resisted by the 1,960 trend line + round number)
• Signal confirmation: Bearish engulfing/double top appears on the 15-minute chart
• Target: 1,930 / 1,900
• Stop loss: above 2,000
🟢 Bullish idea (counter-trend bottom fishing, strict position control)
• Ideal range: 1,900-1,910 (pullback to previous low + psychological level)
• Signal confirmation: Hammer line/morning star appears on the 1-hour chart
• Target: 1,950 / 1,975
• Stop loss: below 1,880
The daily line remains in a bear market structure; any long positions are short-term rebound logic and should not be held too long. If it breaks down with volume below 1,890, then path B is activated, and the left-side bottom-fishing idea should be abandoned immediately.
The above is an objective deduction based on real-time technical charts and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts are dangerous; please maintain stop losses.