4-year trend prediction after 2024 halving (2024.4–2028.3)

Core conclusion: cycle lengthening, diminishing returns, institutional dominance, volatility narrowing; peak in 2025, bottoming in 2026, rise again in 2027, decline before 2028.

I. Stage Division

1. 2024.4–2025.10 (1–18 months after halving: main upward wave)

- Drivers: ETF inflow, interest rate cuts, halving narrative, institutional accumulation

- Peak: $126,000 (2025.10) (already occurred)

- Rise: approximately +94% compared to halving day ($65,000)

- Characteristics: rapid rise, high volatility, retail FOMO

2. 2025.10–2026.12 (18–32 months: bear market/bottoming out)

- Drivers: Profit taking, ETF slowdown, interest rate hike expectations, regulatory implementation

- Bottom Range: $45,000–$60,000 (Around 2026.10)

- Correction Magnitude: -50%~-60% (From high point)

- Characteristics: Gradual decline, fluctuations, chip turnover, miners clearing out

3. 2027.1–2027.12 (32–44 months: Second rise/Slow bull)

- Drivers: 2028 halving expectations, liquidity easing, institutions re-entering

- Target Range: $150,000–$225,000 (Mainstream institutional forecast)

- Characteristics: Slow rise, institution-led, small volatility, weak altcoin rotation

4. 2028.1–2028.3 (44–48 months: Peak/Decline)

- Drivers: 2028 halving implementation, expectation realization, profit taking

- High Point: $250,000–$300,000 (Optimistic)/ $180,000–$220,000 (Neutral)

- Characteristics: Early peak, mild decline, cycle ending

II. Key Variables (Deciding Magnitude)

- ETF Fund Flow: Weekly net inflow > 500 million = Strong; <100 million = Weak

- Federal Reserve Policy: 2026 interest rate cut = Positive; 2027 interest rate hike = Negative

- Regulation: EU MiCA, U.S. Stablecoin Act implementation = Positive

- Miners: Shutdown price ≈ $70,000; Stable computing power = Strong bottom support

- On-chain: Long-term holders account for > 65% = Reluctant to sell; Exchange balances decreasing = Bullish

III. Latest Institutional Targets (2026.2)

- Standard Chartered: 2026 = $150,000; 2027 = $225,000; 2028 = $300,000

- Bernstein: Bottom = $60,000; 2027 = $200,000+

- Pessimistic: 2026=$40,000–$50,000 (Bloomberg/J.P. Morgan)

- Neutral: 2026 = $80,000–$120,000; 2027 = $150,000–$200,000

IV. Summary

2025 peak, 2026 pit, 2027 slow bull, peak decline again before 2028; Increase of about 1–2 times, far lower than the previous two rounds.