๐จ The Fed is 91.7% likely to cut interest rates this month but what does that mean for crypto?
๐ In simple terms: When rates go down, money gets cheaper. Investors often move cash from safe assets (like bonds) into riskier ones (like Bitcoin and Ethereum). In the past, Bitcoin has rallied up to 57% after a cut.
But 2025 is different: big institutions, whales, and altcoin trends may change the outcome.
๐ 1. Why This Rate Cut Matters
Lower rates = cheaper borrowing. Investors feel safer holding BTC and ETH.
History: Bitcoin usually pumps after a cut.
2025 twist: ETFs and clear regulations mean big players are more involved than ever.
๐ If the Fed cuts, itโs like adding fuel to the fire for crypto. But if they donโt, the market could cool down fast.
๐ 2. Bitcoinโs Setup โ The 3 Key Levels
$100Kโ$105K = Safety net. If $BTC falls below, things get ugly (possible $93K)
$113Kโ$115K = Breakout zone. If BTC pushes above, expect a rally.
BTC90,200-2.55%Whales are buying: Big wallets holding 100+ BTC hit a record high.
๐ I like to think of $105K as the โfloorโ and $113K as the โceiling.โ Whales are betting the floor holds.
๐ 3. Ethereum & Altcoins โ Weakness or Rotation?
$ETH ETFs lost $500M in 4 days looks bearish at first glance.
But ETHโs share of the market actually went up (now 21%) in the past month.
BTC dominance dropped below 60% โ often the start of an altcoin season.
๐ ETF means measure the value of investment dollars that investors have either added or removed from an exchange traded fund.
๐ Now: Ethereum saw much more money coming in than Bitcoin, with $3.87 billion added in August and $1.08 billion last week. Bitcoin, on the other hand, had $751.12 million taken out in August and only $440.71 million added last week.
๐ 4. Trading Playbook โ Two Scenarios
If Fed Cuts (most likely):
Watch BTC break above $113K.
Go long BTC, rotate into ETH & top alts.
Use a stop-loss under $109K.
If Fed Holds (less likely):
BTC could retest $100Kโ$105K.
Consider taking profits or moving some into stables.
Avoid high leverage.
๐ If rates go down, crypto likely goes up. If not, prepare for more pain before a rally.
๐ 5. Strategic Outlook โ Short vs. Long Term
Short term: Expect a lot of volatility around the Fed announcement. Quick pumps and dumps are likely.
Long term: This looks like 2017โweak September, followed by a Q4 moonshot. But now, ETFs and whale buying add stability.
๐ Buckle up for a wild September, but donโt be surprised if Q4 is where the real rally begins.
Conclusion ๐
The Fedโs September decision is the make or break moment for crypto.
A cut = fuel for the next rally.
No cut = deeper dip, but possibly a bigger setup for Q4.
๐ Would you buy the Fed cut rally or fade it?
If this playbook helped, hit ๐and consider following๐
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