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Germany, France, and the United States: The world order has collapsed. How far are we from war?
In February 2026, three things will happen simultaneously: At the Munich Security Conference, the leaders of Germany, France, and the United States made the rare statement that the post-World War II world order was dead. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio then published a lengthy article, defining the current period as a "disorderly phase" in a major cycle. The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) has quietly reached a record high, surpassing the levels of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. World Uncertainty Index (WUI) Politicians, investors, and data all point to the same conclusion. I. What did Dalio say? Dalio studied the rise and fall of 11 major empires over the past 500 years and proposed a "Great Cycle" theory. The core idea is simple:
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