Bitcoin enters the “psychological torture phase”: Is a drop to 35,000 USD being considered?
A new report from Lookonchain suggests that Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4/6 of the bear market cycle – a phase that is no longer experiencing shock declines but is considered the most dangerous in terms of psychology.
According to this model, the decline cycle consists of 6 stages, with Stage 3 having been completed with a sharp drop from around 97,000 USD to 60,000 USD in just 30 days, wiping out nearly 50% of market capitalization.
Currently, the market is entering a prolonged sideways state, where prices fluctuate within a narrow range. But this is not stability. According to analysis, this stage helps market makers create two-way liquidity while causing retail investors to become exhausted, impatient, and sell at a loss – also known as the “weak-hands selling” zone.
The noteworthy point is the next scenario. Lookonchain believes that a breakdown below the accumulation zone could occur in the coming months, opening Stage 5 – true capitulation. In the context of increasing global liquidity pressure, the cycle bottom is currently adjusted to around 35,000–45,000 USD.
The important message is not about the lower price target, but rather the market's psychological structure. Stage 4 often causes investors to leave the market not out of fear of a sharp decline, but rather… boredom and loss of confidence.
In every Bitcoin cycle, the sharpest declines often end quickly. But the greatest pain comes from the prolonged sideways phase. And if the historical scenario repeats, the market only truly creates a bottom when most investors have… no longer want to return.
$BTC
A new report from Lookonchain suggests that Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4/6 of the bear market cycle – a phase that is no longer experiencing shock declines but is considered the most dangerous in terms of psychology.
According to this model, the decline cycle consists of 6 stages, with Stage 3 having been completed with a sharp drop from around 97,000 USD to 60,000 USD in just 30 days, wiping out nearly 50% of market capitalization.
Currently, the market is entering a prolonged sideways state, where prices fluctuate within a narrow range. But this is not stability. According to analysis, this stage helps market makers create two-way liquidity while causing retail investors to become exhausted, impatient, and sell at a loss – also known as the “weak-hands selling” zone.
The noteworthy point is the next scenario. Lookonchain believes that a breakdown below the accumulation zone could occur in the coming months, opening Stage 5 – true capitulation. In the context of increasing global liquidity pressure, the cycle bottom is currently adjusted to around 35,000–45,000 USD.
The important message is not about the lower price target, but rather the market's psychological structure. Stage 4 often causes investors to leave the market not out of fear of a sharp decline, but rather… boredom and loss of confidence.
In every Bitcoin cycle, the sharpest declines often end quickly. But the greatest pain comes from the prolonged sideways phase. And if the historical scenario repeats, the market only truly creates a bottom when most investors have… no longer want to return.
$BTC