You may have already read that the company's stocks have reached first place in the world in terms of short volume against the backdrop of ~$7 billion in unrealized losses from BTC, which forms the basis of the reserve.
🫱However, it is important to understand that at current prices around 65K, the company will not go bankrupt. Analysts estimate the probability of bankruptcy in the next 12–18 months as 'very low', less than 5–10% in the base scenario. And even if BTC continues to fall — the company will not go bankrupt.
1️⃣ Why is bankruptcy unlikely even with prices significantly lower than current levels?
• Amount of BTC on the balance: ~717.000 BTC.
• Average purchase price: ~76K.
• Market value of holdings: ~$45 – $49 billion.
• Total debt: ~$7-8 billion (mostly convertible bonds).
• Cash reserves: ~$2.25 billion
The asset-to-debt ratio is approximately 6 to 1. Even considering that the company is currently at a loss on its purchases, its assets still far exceed its liabilities.
2️⃣ At what price level of BTC does a real risk arise?
• Below 30-25K — a noticeable risk of violating loan payments arises.
• Below 10K — the company publicly states that even at this level it will be able to fully cover its debt due to very long bond maturities until 2032.
• Below 7-6K — the real zone of practical bankruptcy. But in the current market, this is an extremely unlikely scenario.
❗️In conclusion: Strategy is currently in a comfortable zone. Bankruptcy is only possible in a catastrophic and prolonged bear market with prices below 20K, which is not expected at this time.
$BTC
