So what’s next?

I’ve redrawn the broken bear pennant using the latest swing low, and the structure now looks much cleaner than the previous failed setup.

Technically, the measured move from this pennant points toward the $40K area — something to keep in mind. That said, I see this scenario as low probability considering the higher-timeframe support zones, key moving averages, volume profile, liquidation heatmaps, and an already overheated RSI.

My base case is a move toward the April 2025 low first. The most bullish outcome would be a strong reclaim before February closes.